Which NFL Head Coaches Are Best Against the Spread?

Which NFL Head Coaches Are Best Against the Spread?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

One of the best ways to determine good NFL coaches is how well they perform against the spread. Yes, win-loss records can paint a clear picture too, but not every team has the same amount of talent on their roster. There are only a few franchise quarterbacks in the league (Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen) and those players make winning much easier.

Performing well against the spread means that a coach and his team are outperforming expectations. And if coaches can continue to have success against the spread, it means they are one of the better coaches in the league. That success also is worth considering for anyone involved in New York sports betting.

Here is a look at how every coach in the NFL has done against the spread during their head coaching careers. This data was collected from Team Rankings with the data set going back to the 2003 NFL season. 

NFL Coaches Against the Spread

There are plenty of New York sports betting apps to consider when mulling a bet on the NFL. Maybe these ATS histories can inform your decisions.

TeamCoachYears ActiveATS RecordCover Pct.
Giants Brian Daboll 114-573.7%
Lions Dan Campbell 223-1167.7%
Bengals Zac Taylor 448-28-260%
Packers Matt LaFleur 442-2959.2%
Patriots Bill Belichick 28204-148-958%
Cowboys Mike McCarthy 16155-119-656.4%
Chargers Brandon Staley 219-15-155.9%
Bills Sean McDermott 655-44-755.6%
Dolphins Mike McDaniel 110-855.6%
Broncos Sean Payton 15140-115-654.8%
49ers Kyle Shanahan 657-49-153.8%
Seahawks Pete Carroll 17118-104-753.2%
  Ravens John Harbaugh 15132-119--1152.6%
Rams Sean McVay 654-49-552.4%
Commanders Ron Rivera 12102-93-752.3%
Steelers Mike Tomlin 16138-127-1052.1
Chiefs Andy Reid 24180-167-651.8%
Titans Mike Vrabel 544-41-251.8%
Panthers Frank Reich 538-36-351.3%
Jaguars Doug Pederson 652-52-150%
Eagles Nick Sirianni 218-19-148.7%
Raiders Josh McDaniels 321-2446.7%
Falcons Arthur Smith 215-18-145.5%
Browns Kevin Stefanski 323-2944.2%
Bucs Todd Bowles 531-44-742.6%
Vikings Kevin O’Connell 17-10-141.2%
Jets Robert Saleh 214-2041.2%
Saints Dennis Allen 421-31-140.6%
Bears Matt Eberflus 16-1135.3%

 

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Guess Who’s No. 1?

The No. 1 coach on this list is none other than Brian Daboll, who went 9-8 in his first season with the New York Giants. He led them to a playoff berth and an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings during wild card weekend. 

What’s even more impressive is his 14-5 record against the spread as his team outperformed expectations nearly every week in 2022. His team covered in nearly 74% of his games, which is six percent better than the No. 2 coach in the NFL over the last 20 years. Time will tell if Daboll can continue to have this type of success against the spread, but his performance during the 2022 was masterful. Keep tabs on the ATS and Giants in New York NFL betting.

It’s also worth mentioning Sean McDermott, who hired Brian Daboll to be his offensive coordinator in Buffalo. McDermott comes in at No. 8 on this list as the Bills have covered 55% of his games as the head coach. The Bills have been favored in most of their games over the last few years, so covering that often is even more impressive.  Bills Mafia keeps waiting for a championship that has been just beyond McDermott’s grasp. 

At the bottom of the list is Robert Saleh of the New York Jets, who has been with the team for two seasons. The Jets have a combined record of 11-23 with him as their head coach and have covered in just 41.2% of his games. But with Aaron Rodgers now under center, the expectations are that this will be one of the best teams in the league. If Saleh can’t get this team to playoffs in 2023, it’s unlikely we will see him as the head coach in 2024 for the Jets, given his lack of success so far. 

For Week 1 at Caesars NY sportsbook, a pair of New York teams face off as Saleh's Jets are +1 against McDemott's Bills. Which coach can open the season 1-0 ATS?

 

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Author

Marcus Mosher covers the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news for EmpireStakes.com. The managing editor of The Raiders Wire is also a contributor to The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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