US Presidential Election Odds: Latest 2024 Election Odds & Predictions

Since September 2023, Donald Trump (now -110) has had the best odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election per bet365, ahead of President Joe Biden (+175) and others. Although sportsbooks in New York do not allow political betting, here's the latest 2024 election odds and predictions following Trump's victory at the Iowa Caucus.

Latest US Presidential Election Odds (Dec. 2023)

Here are the latest odds along with an implied probability (%) to win the 2024 Presidential Election.

1. Donald Trump-110 (53% Chance)
2. Joe Biden+175 (37% Chance)
3. Michelle Obama  +1600 (6% Chance)
4. Gavin Newsom+2000 (5% Chance)
5. Robert Kennedy Jr.+2200 (5% Chance)
6. Kamala Harris+3300 (3% Chance)
7. Nikki Haley+8000 (2% Chance)
Odds Last Verified:July 17, 2024

NOTE: Odds are from bet365 in a legal market. Percentages are predictions based on fair implied probability. Presidential Election odds are not available with New York sports betting apps, Vegas casinos or any regulated US sportsbooks.

Donald Trump speaking at rally

Table of Contents

2024 Election Odds: Longshot Presidential Candidates 

Here are some potential Presidential candidates who don't have the best odds, but still have at least a small chance to win the 2024 election according to most oddsmakers.

Elizabeth Warren+6600
Glenn Youngkin+6600
Chris Christie+10000
Gretchen Whitmer+10000
Hillary Clinton+10000
Mike Pence+10000
Pete Buttigieg+15000
Tucker Carlson+15000
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson+15000
Bernie Sanders+20000
Candace Owens+20000
Elon Musk+20000
Kanye West+20000
Mike Pompeo+20000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+30000
Andrew Yang+50000
Bill Gates+50000
Joe Rogan+50000

NOTE: Sportsbooks such as FanDuel NY, and sportsbooks from all other states still do not offer election betting, or any type of political odds.

2024 Election Odds: Latest Updates

  • 📆 January 21: Ron DeSantis drops out of the race and endorses Donald Trump.
  • 📆 January 15: Trump wins the Iowa Caucus over Ron DeSantis. Vivek Ramaswamy drops out.
  • 📆 December 4: Nikki Haley's odds significantly improve, overtaking Gavin Newsom on the oddsboard.
  • 📆 November 6: Donald Trump's odds improved from +150 to +137. For Democratic candidates, Joe Biden's odds dropped from +175 to +200, and Gavin Newsom's odds improved to +600.
  • 📆 November 2: Nikki Haley moves to the No. 4 spot for 2024 Presidential Election odds, while Trump (+150) and Biden (+175) remain the same.
  • 📆 October 30: Joe Biden's odds to win the 2024 election improve to +175, after being +187 for over two weeks.
  • 📆 October 27: As we near the end of October, Trump remains the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, with +150 odds. Joe Biden remains a close second, with +187 odds, while the odds for other top candidates continue to fluctuate between +800 and +3300. 
  • 📆 October 16: Nearly a month after the 2024 election odds shifted in Donald Trump's favor, the latest Presidential Election odds from bet365 still have Trump (+150) as the betting favorite, slightly ahead of current President Joe Biden (+187).
  • 📆 October 9: While Donald Trump's odds to win the 2024 Election remained the same at +150, Joe Biden's odds improved to +187 after being +200 for over a week.
  • 📆 October 5: Trump and Biden's odds haven't changed much, but there has been some movement from other candidates. Michelle Obama has jumped to the No. 4 spot, while Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have seen their 2024 election odds drop a few spots among Presidential candidates. 
  • 📆 October 2: Former President Donald Trump's odds to win the election improved over the weekend, as Trump is now +150 to become the next President per bet365. Joe Biden's odds make him the most likely opponent, as the current President has +200 odds to remain in office for a second term.
  • 📆 September 27: While the 2024 Presidential Election odds for Joe Biden and others have not changed since last week, Donald Trump's odds to win the Republican Nomination just got better. Trump is now -334 to become the Republican Nominee per bet365, while odds for Ron DeSantis went from +550 to +700.
  • 📆 September 21: According to recent odds from bet365 and others, Donald Trump is now the betting favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election. The latest odds have Trump at +175, while Joe Biden's odds are +200.

*NOTE: While you cannot place wagers on the election, there are several New York sportsbook promos available. such as the following offer from BetRivers:

2024 US Election Odds: Month-by-Month

Here's a visual representation of how the odds for the Top 5 US Presidential election candidates have changed since January 2022.

As pictured above, the 2024 election odds took an interesting in twist in December of 2022 when Ron DeSantis became the favorite among multiple oddsmakers. Since then, however, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have reclaimed the Top 2 spots, making a repeat of the 2020 Presidential Election very likely.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Republican Nominee

Here are the top 3 candidates to win the Republican Nomination and run for President in the 2024 election, and their latest odds from bet365.

1. Donald Trump-1000 (91% Chance)
2. Nikki Haley+700 (12.5% Chance)
Odds Last Updated:July 17, 2024

2024 Republican Nomination Candidates

Here are some more details on the current and past Republican candidates that made a run in the 2024 Presidential Election, including former President Donald Trump, current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and others.

Donald Trump speaking

Donald Trump - Former President (2016-2020)

Despite legal woes, former United States President Donald Trump has remained in the Top 2 when it comes to odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election odds. No matter the news cycle, Trump seems to inevitably rise. In the Republican Nomination odds, he has moved comfortably ahead of Haley.

Nikki Haley smiling

Nikki Haley - Former South Carolina Governor

Nikki Haley’s 2024 Presidential Election odds currently rank second among all Republican candidates, though they are largely insurmountable. Haley, America’s former UN ambassador, has said that “sometimes it takes a woman” in response to questions of how the GOP can reclaim the White House. Haley also has substantial leadership experience as the governor of South Carolina from 2011-17.

Ron DeSantis speaking

Ron DeSantis - Current Florida Governor

Ron DeSantis’ 2024 Presidential Election odds plummeted in late 2023 before officially dropping out in mid-January. It was a long and steady fall for the man who once was favored to win it all. DeSantis' presidential future though shouldn't be written off in the years to come, as he has been embraced for not following the herd. He is also considered a Trumpian figure for the next generation, which means he is a viable two-term candidate down the line. And DeSantis also could attract the centrist voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that Donald Trump lost in 2020. The problem for DeSantis, though, is that his campaign elicited a collective yawn, and he failed to outlast Nikki Haley as Trump's most significant Republican challenger.

2024 Presidential Election Odds: Democratic Nominee

Here are the top 3 candidates to win the Democratic Nomination and run for President in the 2024 election, and their latest odds from bet365.

1. Joe Biden-450 (82% Chance)
2. Michelle Obama+800 (11% Chance)
3. Gavin Newsom+1000 (9% Chance)
Odds Last Updated:July 17, 2024

2024 Democratic Nomination Candidates

Here are some more details on the current Democratic candidates who could run for the 2024 Presidential Election, including President Joe Biden, California Governor Gavin Newsom and others.

Joe Biden speaking

Joe Biden - Current U.S. President

Across most oddsmakers between early-2021 and mid-2023, Joe Biden was consistently the favorite to win, with the best 2024 Presidential Election odds. This has changed as of late, however, as former President Donald Trump is now the election betting favorite. It appears Biden, who will be nearly 82 years old when voters head to the polls in November 2024, now has some ground to gain to reclaim confidence from oddsmakers. 

Gavin Newsom speaking

Gavin Newsom - California Governor

Gavin Newsom’s 2024 Presidential Election odds have improved over the last several months. The Californian is wrapping up his first term as governor and is a popular figure. He beat Brian Dahle handily in the 2022 California gubernatorial election to shore up his support. He has endorsed Biden and said that he would not run. Commitments in politics are unbreakable, right?

 Robert Kennedy Jr

Robert F. Kennedy Jr - Attorney & Political Candidate

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 2024 Presidential Election odds are improving as of late. He has carved a niche and is now third among all candidates. On April 19, the environmental attorney (University of Virginia) announced he would challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination. He is the son of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, who ran for president in 1968 and was killed that June. In March, he made headlines by announcing he would consider Jets QB Aaron Rodgers as his running mate...

Michelle Obama speaking

Michelle Obama - Former FLOTUS

Michelle Obama’s 2024 Presidential Election odds have climbed as of late. The former First Lady never ruled out running for president herself, and certainly would gain plenty of Democratic supporters. But can Obama capture the center ground as her husband did before her? Perhaps. But pitching Obama against Trump could be a risky strategy for the Dems, as Trump’s followers very much dislike the Obamas.

Kamala Harris smiling

Kamala Harris - Current U.S. Vice President

Kamala Harris odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election are very low compared to other candidates. The former Senator made some headlines recently attacking DeSantis and Florida. Harris could be on the ticket with Biden again as VP.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton - Former FLOTUS & Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election are +8000, meaning it is very unlikely she will win the election.

Non-Political US Presidential Election Odds & Candidates

When Trump first flirted with the idea of being president in 2013, plenty of people laughed it off as a publicity stunt. But naysayers of the celebrity businessman didn’t realize the extent of his emerging popularity. 

It’s no surprise, then, that election betting sites are taking odds on other celebrity presidents. While sportsbooks such as BetRivers NY and all other legal US operators are not offering Presidential Election odds, here are some of the longshot odds from bet365 and their overseas offerings. 

Tucker Carlson speaking

Tucker Carlson - Political Journalist & Pundit

Tucker Carlson's 2024 Presidential Election odds are +15000. The well-known political commenter has been discussed as a potential candidate to make the switch from entertainment to politics, but there has been nothing official out of his camp to suggest he would run in 2024. Carlson is popular among Republican voters, though, so should he consider a run at any political office, expect him to garner plenty of attention.

Elon Musk speaking

Elon Musk - Entrepreneur

Some bookmakers in Europe price Elon Musk at +20000 to win the 2024 Presidential Election. But what they don’t seem to realize – or don't care to – is that Musk was born in South Africa, and only US-born citizens can run for president. He's ineligible.

Joe Rogan smiling

Joe Rogan - Podcaster, Broadcaster, Comedian

Joe Rogan’s 2024 Presidential Election odds are +50000. The presenter and podcaster was also tipped to run in 2020 due to the success of the Joe Rogan Experience. But his position within the GOP is more as commentator and cheerleader, rather than all-in politician. Rogan recently appeared to back DeSantis for president in 2024, saying “what he's done for Florida is admirable."

2024 Presidential Election Predictions

The race for the White House in 2024 is going to be close. On one side we have Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. The former president holds great power over the Republican party, the right-wing media and his supporters. Trump, who is fighting multiple indictments, now has the best odds to win the election, ahead of surging Haley, stagnant DeSantis, and all Democratic candidates.

Where Trump is a polarizer, DeSantis could draw the GOP closer to the center ground and collect votes in the rust belt and among Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a decision to make. Do they stick with Biden and go all-in on a second term? It seems odd to get rid of him as his odds are strong. Could a new figure lead the party and take on the GOP in a fresh campaign? Would that be Robert F. Kennedy or Gavin Newsom?

There is a lot of soul searching going on in Democratic camps. Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Obama, Clinton. It’s a strange make-up of old names and new figures who have yet to forge their political reputations. 

Will Joe Biden Win in 2024?

President Joe Biden and Donald Trump have had similar odds for the last few months, but several questions remain. It's difficult to predict who will win the 2024 Presidential Election, and at this point, the chances are comparable to playing blackjack or roulette with online casinos in New York or other states.

Can Biden stay healthy? Can any legal issue derail Trump? Can any other candidates position themselves to enter the mix? Only time will tell.

Who Will Be the Republican Nominee?

Similar to Biden's questions, there are several looming questions among the Republican party.

Can Haley continue her rapid rise? Can DeSantis come back to life? It seems unlikely, but there still is a lot of time left.

Will There Be a New Democratic Nominee?

Some political pundits believe President Joe Biden cannot defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, and this has some wondering if there will be a new Democratic nominee. With Gavin Newsom's odds increasing, he seems to be the most likely replacement.

Other Predictions For The Presidential Election In 2024

The 2024 presidential election can take a turn at any moment. The varying odds indicate that the margin for error is slim. President Biden and former president Trump are the top two candidates, but Nikki Haley, Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis could challenge the current leaders. The political experience of DeSantis and Newsom makes them viable options as president and intriguing candidates for voters.

2024 Presidential Election: Key Dates

Here are some key upcoming dates ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election:

  • March 5, 2024: Super Tuesday
  • July 15, 2024: Republican National Convention begins
  • August 19, 2024: Democratic National Convention begins
  • November 5, 2024: Election Day

Presidential Election Betting Odds Explained

Presidential election odds are based on the likelihood of the election outcome from a gambling operator. The 2024 US Election odds above are listed in American odds with a plus-sign (+) and a number following, although Las Vegas and other sportsbooks nationwide do not offer political wagering. 

The number after the plus-sign (+) is the amount a bettor would win on a $100 wager. For example, if a Presidential candidate has +200 odds, and a bettor wagers $100, the bettor would win $200 and net $300 if the candidate were to win the election.

What is bet365?

A leader in the online gambling and sports betting industry for over 20 years, bet365 is one of the most well-known brands across Europe, Australia and other parts of the world. While their US Election odds are not available in America, they are legal to bet on in other countries.

US Presidential Election Odds FAQs


Editorial Staff

The experts at EmpireStakes who bring you the latest updates in New York sports betting as well as the state's casinos. We pull together decades of experience to give you analysis as well as comparisons of the best NY online gambling apps.

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