Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds, Playoff Chances & More: Week 4

By Cole Shelton
Stefon Diggs at Bills Practice

After a disappointing Week 1 loss, the Buffalo Bills (2-1) have won two games in a row. The Bills playoff chances are currently 75% and their Super Bowl odds are +1000. I will be updating the odds throughout the season so be sure to bookmark this page.


Latest Buffalo Bills Odds: Super Bowl, Division, Playoffs

The Bills Super Bowl odds are +1000, per DraftKings New York. Buffalo currently has the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl.

πŸ‘‘ Super Bowl Odds+1000
πŸ† AFC Title Odds+550
πŸ₯‡ AFC East Division Odds+165
⭐️ Playoff Odds-300
βœ… Odds Last UpdatedSeptember 30, 2023

Buffalo currently has a 9.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl in 2023-24. Last season, they opened as Super Bowl favorites at +600, a 14.3% chance of winning it all.

The Bills, meanwhile, have a 15.4% chance of winning the AFC, which is the third-highest chance, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins. Buffalo also has a 37.7% chance of winning the AFC East and trails the Dolphins to win the division after Week 3.

Finally, to make the playoffs, oddsmakers are giving Buffalo a 75% chance of making the playoffs next season.

The Bills, meanwhile, have a 16.7% chance of winning the AFC, which is the second-highest chance, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo also has a 40.8% chance of winning the AFC East and trails the Dolphins to win the division after Week 1.

Finally, to make the playoffs, oddsmakers are giving Buffalo a 66.7% chance of making the playoffs next season.

Bills Super Bowl Odds vs. AFC East

The Bills trail the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East to win the Super Bowl, as the Dolphins who are 3-0 are +900 (10% chance). The New England Patriots are 1-2 and are +7000 to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings, which is just a 1.4% implied probability. The New York Jets who beat Buffalo, but has lost two straight games are well back at +13000 (0.8% chance).

Bills Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds

The Bills are currently +1000 to win the Super Bowl. I will be monitoring how the odds change each week once the season starts.

Preseason+900 (10% chance)
After Week 1+1100 (8.3% chance)
After Week 2+1000 (9.1% chance)
After Week 3+1000 (9.1% chance)

Latest Updates Impacting Bills Super Bowl Odds

The Bills had an interesting offseason as GM Brandon Beane worked on improving the offensive and defensive lines. Buffalo also drafted TE Dalton Kincaid, who should help the offense as the Bills don't have established weapons outside of WR Stefon Diggs.

  • πŸ“… Sept. 24: Bills beat Commanders 37-3 in Week 3.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 17: Bills beat Raiders 38-10 in Week 2.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 11: Bills lose 22-16 to the New York Jets in Week 1.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 5: Bills restructure contracts of Ryan Bates and Taron Johnson.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 30: Bills name Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tyler Matakevich as captains.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 29: Bills place Von Miller on PUP, to miss first four games.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 22: Bills sign LB DaShaun White.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 21: Bills sign RB Ty Johnson and OT Garrett McGhin.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 21: Bills DE Shane Ray placed on season-ending IR.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 20: Bills OT Tommy Doyle ruled out for the season with a knee injury.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 19: Bills lose 27-15 in preseason action to the Steelers.
  • πŸ“… August 15: Bills OT Brandon Shell announces retirement from NFL
  • πŸ“… July 28: Bills sign WR Andy Isabella to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… July 25: Bills place RB/KR Nyheim Hines on Reserve/Non-Football Injury list.
  • πŸ“… July 23: Bills announce contract extensions for head coach Sean McDermot and GM Brandon Beane through the 2027 season.
  • πŸ“… June 13: WR Stefon Diggs meets with team leaders and doctors in Buffalo, but does not participate in minicamp.
  • πŸ“… June 6: Bills sign DE Leonard Floyd to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… June 5: Bills sign DT Ed Oliver to a four-year contract extension.
  • πŸ“… May 23: WR Stefon Diggs is among Bills players skipping OTAs.
  • πŸ“… May 1: The Bills sign RB Latavius Murray to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… April 28: Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence and Tulane LB Dorian Williams are drafted on Day 2.
  • πŸ“… April 27: The Bills draft Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to bolster their tight end room.
  • πŸ“… April 18: The Bills re-sign DE Shaq Lawson to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 21: The Bills sign former Patriots RB Damien Harris to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 17: The Bills release WR Isaiah McKenzie and re-sign CB Dane Jackson to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 16: The Bills sign QB Kyle Allen, guard Connor McGovern, and WR Deonte Harty to strengthen their offense.
  • πŸ“… March 15: The Bills re-sign safety Jordan Poyer to a two-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 12: Buffalo re-signs starting LB Matt Milano to a two-year contract extension.
  • πŸ“… Feb. 28: The Bills announce defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is taking a leave of absence. He has been the team’s defensive coordinator since 2017.

Make sure to bookmark this page for more news updates on the Buffalo Bills throughout the season.

Bills Schedule and Betting Lines

The Bills schedule was released in May 2023, and DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds on every game. Below is a week-by-week look at the Bills schedule, each game's point spread and the latest moneyline.

πŸ“… Week 1 @ New York Jets🏈 Bills (0-1) lose 22-16 (OT)
πŸ“… Week 2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders🏈 Bills (1-1), win 38-10
πŸ“… Week 3 @ Washington Commanders🏈 Bills (2-1), win 37-3
πŸ“… Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins🏈 Bills -2.5, ML -135
πŸ“… Week 5 vs. JAX (London)🏈 Bills -3.5, ML -170
πŸ“… Week 6 vs. NYG (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Bills - 7, ML -298
πŸ“… Week 7 @ New England Patriots🏈 Bills -3.5, ML -175
πŸ“… Week 8 vs. TB (Thursday Night Football)🏈 Bills -10, ML -440
πŸ“… Week 9 @ CIN (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Bills +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 10 vs. DEN (Monday Night Football)🏈 Bills -6, ML -245
πŸ“… Week 11 vs. New York Jets🏈 Bills -4, ML -185
πŸ“… Week 12 @ Philadelphia Eagles🏈 Bills +2.5, ML +110
πŸ“… Week 13🏈 BYE
πŸ“… Week 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs🏈 Bills +3.5, ML +145
πŸ“… Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys🏈 Bills -4, ML -192
πŸ“… Week 16 @ LAC (Saturday)🏈 Bills -1, ML -115
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. NE (New Year's Eve)🏈 Bills -6.5, ML -270
πŸ“… Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins🏈 Bills +1.5, ML +102
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

The Buffalo Bills routed the Washington Commanders on the road in Week 3 to get above .500 for the first time this season. Buffalo is set for a massive AFC East showdown at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.

Outside of the divisional games, the two other games to watch closely are Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles and Week 14 against the Kansas City Chiefs. They are both road games which adds to the difficulty for Buffalo, but it will be a good warm-up just a few weeks before the playoffs start.

Key Contributors Toward Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

The Buffalo Bills will be led by Josh Allen and, as long as he is healthy and playing up to his standards, the Bills will remain a Super Bowl contender. Allen is also +850 to win MVP, which is the for fourth-best among MVP odds.

The newly formed backfield of James Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray should help Buffalo's offense. The Bills drafted TE Dalton Kincaid in the first round, and he should have an immediate impact on the offense.

On defense, Buffalo is still without Von Miller who started the season on the PUP list but could be back for their Week 5 game. The Bills also were able to re-sign safety Jordan Poyer.

Where Can I Bet on the Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl?

You can bet on the Bills playoff chances at BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings and any other NY sportsbook. Buffalo is a sizable favorite to make the playoffs as oddsmakers believe the Bills are one of the Super Bowl favorites. However, if you think Buffalo's Super Bowl odds are overrated, taking them to miss the playoffs is a big plus-money bet.

Popular Types of Sports Betting on Bills Super Bowl Odds

As we get closer to the NFL season, now is the perfect time to brush up on the types of bets you can place on the Buffalo Bills Super Bowl chances.

Super Bowl Futures & Futures Bets

Super Bowl future bets are bets on a team to win the Super Bowl prior to or during the season. Whenever you lock in the bet, those are the odds you get no matter if the Bills Super Bowl odds go up or down throughout the season.

Moneyline Bets

Moneyline bets are bets on a team to win a game. Rather than betting on a future and having your money tied up for months, you can bet on the Bills to win a certain game and know if you win or lose your bet that week.

Prop Bets

Prop bets are becoming more and more popular, including for the Super Bowl. You can bet on whether the coin toss is head or tails, how long the national anthem is, who wins Super Bowl MVP and certain over/unders such as passing yards.

Point Spread

The point spread is a more common way to bet on NFL games, especially the Super Bowl. Instead of laying chalk like -200, sportsbooks will have a spread and the line will usually be -110. For example, Buffalo is a -1.5-point favorite to beat the Jets in Week 1. If you take the point spread, the Bills need to win by 2 or more points for your bet to win.

Bonus Bets

Bonus bets are a form of sportsbook credit as customers can place bets using the credit to win actual money. You can leverage them during the NFL offseason to place Super Bowl bets or season-long bets so your own money isn't tied up for that long.

Visit BetMGM.com for T&Cs. Must be 21+ and physically present in NY only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl History

The Buffalo Bills have never won the Super Bowl, but did make four straight Super Bowls. Buffalo played in 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1994 but lost all four years.

The Bills became an NFL team in 1970 and have enjoyed Hall of Fame players such as Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith.

Have The Buffalo Bills Ever Won The Super Bowl?

No, the Bills have never won the Super Bowl, but they did make four straight appearances. In those four chances, Buffalo lost 20-19 to the Giants, 37-24 to the Redskins, 52-17 to the Cowboys and 30-13 to the Cowboys.

The Bills are one of 12 NFL teams that have never won the Super Bowl. Of those 12 teams, four never have made it to the Super Bowl.

How Many Super Bowls Have the Buffalo Bills Won?

The Bills have won zero Super Bowls and are 0-4 in the big game.

Which Years Did the Bills Go to the Super Bowl?

The Bills made it to the Super Bowl in 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1994.

  • 🏈 Super Bowl XXV (1990-91): Lost to the New York Giants, 20-19
  • 🏈 Super Bowl XXVI (1991-92): Lost to the Washington Redskins (now Commanders), 37-24
  • 🏈 Super Bowl XXVII (1992-93): Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 52-17
  • 🏈 Super Bowl XXVIII (1993-94): Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 30-13

In their first Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 1990 season, Buffalo had a solid team, with nine players making the Pro Bowl. With DE Bruce Smith winning Defensive Player of the Year and QB Jim Kelly under center, the Bills went 13-3. Buffalo entered Super Bowl XXV as the betting favorite, before ultimately losing on a last-minute missed field goal now infamously known as "Wide Right."

The following season, the Bills went 13-3 again and featured a very similar team, led by Kelly and RB Thurman Thomas, who was named the 1991 NFL MVP and NFL Offensive Player of the Year. (Kelly finished second in MVP voting that season.)

In the 1992-93 season, Buffalo went 11-5 and finished second in the division behind the Miami Dolphins. Though Kelly missed the Bills first two playoff games, Buffalo still made it to the Super Bowl.

The Bills final year of the four-year stretch was in 1993-94 when Buffalo went 12-4 and had the best record in the AFC. The Bills kept the same key players for all four years but never could hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

How Many Times Have the Bills Been to the AFC Championship Game?

The Bills have been to the AFC Championship game six times and are 4-2 in those games.

  • ❌ 1988-89: Loss vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 21-10
  • βœ… 1990-91: Won vs. Oakland Raiders, 51-3
  • βœ… 1991-92: Won vs. Denver Broncos, 10-7
  • βœ… 1992-93: Won vs. Miami Dolphins, 29-10
  • βœ… 1993-94: Won vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 30-13
  • ❌ 2020-21: Loss vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 38-24

Preseason Bills Super Bowl Odds Every Year Since 2000

The Bills Super Bowl odds are currently +1000, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. At +1000, Buffalo is less of a favorite than it was entering the 2022 season, while in 2021 Buffalo was +1100. Here's a look at the Bills preseason odds from past years:

πŸ“† 2022-2023Preseason Odds = +600
πŸ“† 2021-2022Preseason Odds = +1100
πŸ“† 2020-2021Preseason Odds = +3000
πŸ“† 2019-2020Preseason Odds = +10000
πŸ“† 2018-2019Preseason Odds = +30000
πŸ“† 2017-2018Preseason Odds = +20000
πŸ“† 2016-2017Preseason Odds = +6000
πŸ“† 2015-2016Preseason Odds = +4000
πŸ“† 2014-2015Preseason Odds = +6000
πŸ“† 2013-2014Preseason Odds = +10000
πŸ“† 2012-2013Preseason Odds = +6600
πŸ“† 2011-2012Preseason Odds = +15000
πŸ“† 2010-2011Preseason Odds = +15000
πŸ“† 2009-2010Preseason Odds = +6600
πŸ“† 2008-2009Preseason Odds = +5000
πŸ“† 2007-2008Preseason Odds = +10000
πŸ“† 2006-2007Preseason Odds = +10000
πŸ“† 2005-2006Preseason Odds = +3000
πŸ“† 2004-2005Preseason Odds = +4000
πŸ“† 2003-2004Preseason Odds = +2000
πŸ“† 2002-2003Preseason Odds = +4000
πŸ“† 2001-2002Preseason Odds = +2200
πŸ“† 2000-2001Preseason Odds = +2000
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

Bills Super Bowl Odds FAQs


Cole Shelton is an NFL sports betting expert for EmpireStakes.com, focusing on the Bills' playoff chances and Super Bowl odds. His work has appeared in several sports and fantasy outlets, including Rotowire, CBS Sports and Sportskeeda. With a background in sports betting that ranges from NFL to MMA, his wide-reaching knowledge will surely deliver the best information for Bills fans and New York bettors.

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