NFL Draft: How Much Value Have NY Teams Received from 1st-Round Picks?

Each spring, 32 franchises and their legion of fans use the seven-round NFL Draft as a barometer of their chosen team’s success for the upcoming year, with the results largely being backed up by the way teams play the following year.

So, EmpireStakes.com aimed to see which of the three NFL teams from the state of New York has done best with first-round selections. The results would not surprise New York sportsbooks.

In New York, that success has played out as scripted, with the Buffalo Bills holding the NFL’s fourth-best average when it comes to average approximate value (AV) per draft pick since 2014, at 35.8. Much of that comes from the selection of franchise quarterback Josh Allen in the first round of the 2018 draft. The New York Giants rank 13th leaguewide (28.3 AV per pick) and the New York Jets are 27th, at 22.0 AV per pick.

On the field, Buffalo has posted the NFL’s eighth-best win percentage over that 10-year stretch, at .599, while the Giants (.371) and Jets (.337) are 24th and 25^th, respectively.

Utilizing Pro-Football-Reference.com, EmpireStakes.com — your source for NY sportsbook promos — utilized their approximate value statistic to combine the total approximate value of the career of each NFL team’s first-round NFL draft picks from 2014 to 2023. The teams were then ranked on the AV per pick.

NFL Teams AV Total Since 2014

Rank	Team	Total Approximate Value	# of 1^st Round Draft Picks	Average Approximate Value Per Pick
1	Los Angeles Rams	285	4	71.3
2	Dallas Cowboys	372	9	41.3
3	Chicago Bears	253	7	36.1
4	Buffalo Bills	322	9	35.8
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	312	9	34.7
6	Kansas City Chiefs	235	7	33.6
7	Baltimore Ravens	428	13	32.9
8	Indianapolis Colts	174	6	29.0
T-9	Carolina Panthers	289	10	28.9
T-9	Miami Dolphins	318	11	28.9
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	258	9	28.7
12	San Francisco 49ers	314	11	28.5
13	New York Giants	340	12	28.3
14	Cleveland Browns	337	12	28.1
15	New Orleans Saints	336	12	28.0
16	Atlanta Falcons	305	11	27.7
17	Tennessee Titans	298	11	27.1
18	Las Vegas Raiders	315	12	26.3
19	Los Angeles Chargers	287	11	26.1
20	Denver Broncos	203	8	25.4
21	Arizona Cardinals	226	9	25.1
22	Detroit Lions	300	12	25.0
23	Washington Commanders	246	10	24.6
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	290	12	24.2
25	Minnesota Vikings	241	10	24.1
26	Houston Texans	183	8	22.9
27	New York Jets	286	13	22.0
T-28	Cincinnati Bengals	191	10	19.1
T-28	Green Bay Packers	191	10	19.1
30	Philadelphia Eagles	188	10	18.8
31	New England Patriots	136	8	17.0
32	Seattle Seahawks	110	7	15.7

Most New York betting apps have the San Francisco 49ers as the Super Bowl favorite early in 2024.

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Leaguewide, the Bills have the NFL’s fourth-best AV per first-round draft pick average since 2014, at 35.8, ranking behind the Los Angeles Rams (71.3 AV per pick), Dallas Cowboys (41.3 AV) and Chicago Bears (36.1 AV).

Conversely, the Jets are just outside the bottom five when it comes to AV average, with their total of 22.0 AV, ranking just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers, who are tied for 28th at 19.1. The Philadelphia Eagles (18.8 AV per pick), New England Patriots (17.0 AV per pick) and Seattle Seahawks (15.7 AV per pick) are the league’s worst teams at drafting for value since 2014.

When broken down by raw AV totals alone, the Baltimore Ravens (428 AV), Dallas Cowboys (372 AV), Giants (340 AV), Cleveland Browns (337 AV) and New Orleans Saints (336 AV) are the NFL’s leaders, though teams like the Giants had a lot more draft capital (12 picks) than the AV-per-pick leaders like the Rams (four picks), Cowboys (nine picks), Bears (seven picks) and Bills (nine picks).

As of the afternoon of March 13, FanDuel NY, the state’s largest operator, has the Bills’ Super Bowl odds at +1200, fourth-best among the NFL’s 32 teams. The Jets, with the expected return of Aaron Rodgers, are tied for 12^th with the Rams and Falcons at +3000. The Giants are way back in the pack at +10000.

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