New York Giants Playoff Chances Week 4: Tracking the Giants Playoff Picture

By Chris Wassel
Daniel Jones Throws in 2022 Playoffs

3 Key Takeaways

  • The Giants' playoff chances are at 19% after Week 3 of the 2023 season.
  • The Giants have a 3.23% chance to win the NFC East, which ranks them last in the division.
  • New York has a 1.32% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024.

QB Daniel Jones and AP Comeback Player of the Year candidate RB Saquon Barkley needed to both stay healthy for New York to have a chance to contend against the better teams in the league. Unfortunately, Barkley sprained his ankle very late in New York's comeback win in Arizona in Week 2. The high ankle sprain will keep the running back out probably for Week 4 and maybe longer.

The odds are already growing longer, according to New York sportsbooks. I'll track changes to the Giants' playoff chances every week and keep an eye on the playoff picture 2023. Now after Week 3, the Giants' odds fell further to 19%, and the road gets tougher.


What Are The Giants' Playoff Chances?

The Giants' playoff chances slid down to 19% after Week 3. More on the Giants' playoff picture is listed below:

💪 Giants' Playoff Chances19% Chance
Giants Miss Playoffs81% Chance
🏆 Giants Win Super Bowl1.32% Chance
👑 Giants Win NFC1.64% Chance
🔥 Giants Win NFC East3.23% Chance
🏈 Giants ESPN Football Power Index-4.6 FPI (26th)
Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 29, 2023

The Giants' playoff picture is calculated using the implied probability of the team's odds to make the postseason. Converting the Giants' current odds of +425 to make the playoffs provides the 19% chance highlighted above. That leaves a 81% chance for the Giants to miss the playoffs.

The Giants' Super Bowl odds started the season at +6500, which translated to a 1.5% chance to win. That number lengthened again to +7500 (1.32% chance) after Week 3. The Giants now have a 1.64% chance to win the conference and a 3.23% chance to win the division.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator tracks every eligible NFL team's playoff chances, but is not yet available for the 2023 season. ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each NFL team's efficiency and future team strength. New York's number (now t-28th) dropped to -4.6 after three weeks.

Giants Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

We will examine the New York Giants' playoff chances throughout the 2023 season. New York started at 38% heading into Week 1. After their 40-0 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, that number dipped to 23.8%. The Giants did follow up the Week 1 stinker with a comeback 31-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Another bad primetime outing versus the 49ers dropped them further to 19%.

Preseason38.5% chance
After Week 123.8% chance
After Week 221.3% chance
After Week 319% chance

Giants Schedule and Betting Lines

Week 1 vs. Dallas CowboysGiants (0-1) lose 40-0
Week 2 at Arizona CardinalsGiants (1-1) win 31-28
Week 3 at San Francisco 49ersGiants (1-2) lose 30-12
Week 4 vs. Seattle SeahawksGiants -1.5, ML -122
Week 5 at Miami DolphinsGiants +4.5, ML +164
Week 6 at Buffalo BillsGiants +7, ML +240
Week 7 vs. Washington CommandersGiants -2.5, ML -130
Week 8 vs. New York JetsGiants +1.5, ML +102
Week 9 at at Las Vegas RaidersGiants +1.5, ML +100
Week 10 at Dallas CowboysGiants +5.5, ML +180
Week 11 at Washington CommandersGiants -1.5, ML -122
Week 12 vs. New England PatriotsGiants -1.5, ML -120
Week 13BYE
Week 14 vs. Green Bay PackersGiants -2.5, ML -130
Week 15 at New Orleans SaintsGiants +2.5, ML +110
Week 16 at Philadelphia EaglesGiants +7, ML +240
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles RamsGiants -3, ML -166
Week 18 vs. Philadelphia EaglesGiants +3, ML +130
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 29, 2023

The Giants' schedule keeps getting tougher. Their opposition winning percentage comes in at .549 from 2022. New York, without Saquon Barkley, must play at San Francisco, then Seattle, and at Miami. Buffalo follows that game on the road as well. The Giants might be 1-5 after six weeks.

New York's path to the playoffs has become more arduous with injuries and poor play. Without Saquon Barkley, the New York Giants path to the playoffs needs a jolt or early and healthy return for the running back.

New York Giants' Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates September 2023

Below is a timeline of important team updates since the end of the 2022 season that could factor into the Giants' playoff chances.

  • 📅 September 19: Giants announce RB Saquon Barkley will miss three weeks with an ankle sprain. Andrew Thomas may not play again in Week 3, and Azeez Ojulari may not either.
  • 📅 September 8: Giants extend K Graham Gano for three years at $16.5 million. Almost $11.3 million of the contract is fully guaranteed.
  • 📅 September 3: Giants restructure $6.3 million worth of Daniel Jones' contract. It may or may not mean a move is coming as this creates more salary cap flexibility.
  • 📅 August 24: Giants acquire DB/LB Isaiah Simmons from the Arizona Cardinals for a 2024 seventh-round pick. RT Evan Neal out of concussion protocol and good for Week 1 vs. Dallas.
  • 📅 August 6: RT Evan Neal is in concussion protocol and is questionable for Week 1 vs. Dallas. WR Wan'Dale Robinson (activated off PUP list August 29th) and CB Aaron Robinson are expect to return in Week 3.
  • 📅 July 26: LT Andrew Thomas signs five-year extension worth $117.5 million. $67 million fully guaranteed.
  • 📅 July 25: RB Saquon Barkley signs one-year deal worth up to $11 million, ending his holdout.
  •  📅 July 21: RB James Robinson and WR Cole Beasley sign to one-year deals.
  • 📅 July 17: RB Saquon Barkley and the Giants fail to come to terms on a long-term contract. 
  • 🗓️ May 15: ESPN's Mike Clay ranks the Giants' defensive line No. 1 in the league.
  • 🗓️ May 4: The Giants sign DT Dexter Lawrence to a four-year extension worth $90M.
  • 🗓️ April 29: The Giants select Oklahoma RB Eric Gray, Old Dominion CB Tre Hawkins III, Oregon DT Jordon Riley and Houston S Gervarrius Owens on Day 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft. ... RB Saquon Barkley's representatives will reconvene with the team on contract talks, per ESPN.
  • 🗓️ April 28: The Giants select Minnesota OL John Michael Schmitz and Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt in the second and third rounds, respectively, of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • 🗓️ April 27: The Giants select Maryland CB Deonte Banks in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • 🗓️ April 24: DT A'Shawn Robinson, who won Super Bowl LVI with the Rams, signs a 1-year, $5M deal.
  • 🗓️ April 17: Team offseason workouts begin. RB Saquon Barkley and DE Dexter Lawrence do not attend as their contract disputes continue.
  • 🗓️ April 12: RB Saquon Barkley does not plan to sign the franchise tag before the team's offseason workouts, per ESPN.
  • 🗓️ March 23: The Giants sign S Bobby McCain and WR Jamison Crowder to 1-year deals.
  • 🗓️ March 20: WR Darius Slayton returns to the team on a 2-year, $12M deal.
  • 🗓️ March 17: The Giants add former Colts WR Parris Campbell on a 1-year deal worth just under $5M. Former Giants S Julian Love, who led the team in tackles and interceptions in 2022, signs a 2-year deal with the Seahawks.
  • 🗓️ March 16: Free-agent LB Bobby Okereke signs with the team on a 4-year, $40M deal.
  • 🗓️ March 15: The Giants acquire TE Darren Waller from the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round draft pick. Fan-favorite WR Sterling Shepard re-signs on a 1-year deal. WR Kenny Golladay's contract is terminated, freeing up $6.7M in cap space.
  • 🗓️ March 8: GM Joe Schoen says the team is working on long-term deals for RB Saquon Barkley and DT Dexter Lawrence.
  • 🗓️ March 7: The Giants announce they signed QB Daniel Jones to a 4-year, $160 million contract extension. The Giants place the non-exclusive franchise tag on RB Saquon Barkley, giving the sides one year to agree to a long-term contract.
  •  🗓️ Feb. 16: The Giants re-sign surprise standout WR Isaiah Hodgins to a one-year deal.

Want to continue to get updates on the latest Giants moves? I'll add more news above every day throughout the NFL season as it happens. Make sure to bookmark this page to keep tabs on the Giants' playoff chances.

QB Daniel Jones dropped to +15000 to win MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year award. Jones has had one good half of football in three games. There is a chance Monday night at home against Seattle but the quarterback is 1-11 in primetime.

Saquon Barkley's MVP number is stationary at +20000 while his OPOY slid to +10000 after Week 3. Against Arizona, Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain. While getting him back is important, Barkley knows he is on a franchise tag but has poor results after rushing back from injury.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson returned against San Francisco and caught four balls for 21 yards. It may take him a few weeks to get that speed back, but that's an improvement over Sterling Shepherd.

TE Darren Waller struggled against San Francisco with only three catches for 20 yards. Waller (now +15000 for OPOY) has 12 catches for 132 yards and no touchdowns after three weeks.

WR Jalin Hyatt (+10000 for OROY) dropped again after barely being utilized against San Francisco last Thursday. The hope is that Hyatt gets more chances against the Seattle Seahawks.

CB Jason Pinnock did not have the best Week 3 but he did hit Brock Purdy once.

LB Kayvon Thibodeaux and DE Leonard Williams have talked more than produced after three weeks. Thibodeaux is now +18000 for DPOY while Williams stayed at +20000.

The first three weeks have been even worse for Thibodeaux who almost seems more at war with the press over what pressure is being generated.

LB Bobby Okereke (still +20000 for DPOY) kept improving with nine combined tackles and a quarterback hit. Rookie CB Deonte Banks (now +5000 for DROY) made a couple tackles but will have an MRI on his arm after getting kneed on Thursday. He was one of the more effective players against the run.

Finally, OLB Azeez Ojulari (+20000 for DPOY) had 5.5 sacks in seven games (after having 8 sacks in 2021). Ojulari has been out for two weeks and remains questionable for Monday night against Seattle.

Brian Daboll, the 2022 Coach of the Year, likely will not repeat (+13000 at DraftKings NY Sportsbook) as Coach of the Year. He is the last coach on the board currently.

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Looking Ahead: Giants Playoff Picture

What is the Giants' path to the playoffs? First, they still need to move up in the NFC East. The Giants finished third in this division last year. They are now 1-2 under head coach Brian Daboll.

The Giants took more steps back with QB Daniel Jones performing poorly in primetime again (now 1-11 in his career). TE Darren Waller was not a factor and WR Jalin Hyatt never got going last Thursday. Also, WR Darius Slayton had a mere 32 yards on three catches. Young O-linemen Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas remain red flags until Thomas gets healthy and Neal improves.

Star RB Saquon Barkley's short-term future right now is not good. Barkley appears to be out for Week 4 and maybe longer with a high ankle sprain. The New York Giants offense is a mess without the All-Pro.

Week 3 only slightly impacted New York's early playoff hopes, but a home loss Week 4 could cripple them. Can they even try to run the ball on Monday? Even Daniel Jones only scrambled twice. There are line of scrimmage issues, turnover issues, and more. The defense and offense are both ranked in the bottom third of the league.

Andrew Thomas may be healthy enough to play in Week 4. Considering the Giants have a winnable game against Seattle, watch out for social reports with several players battling injuries.

Do the Giants Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

As of now, yes, the New York Giants have a pulse to make the playoffs at 19%. So a Monday night game allows the team to get some rest. However, the Giants' current playoff chances sit under 20%, which means NY sports betting apps expect the Giants not to make the playoffs as of now.

The reigning conference champion Eagles are favored to win the division again with a 60.78% chance. Philadelphia's chance to make the playoffs is almost a lock at 93.33%. The Cowboys after a surprise loss have a 39.22% chance to win the division and now 80% to make the playoffs after Week 3.

While the Giants still have QB Daniel Jones, they clearly need Saquon Barkley back and at 100% along with Andrew Thomas. Something needs to be done to solidify the line so that Jones has time to make decisions and the New York Giants can actually run the ball.

The Giants offense totaled under 200 yards in Week 3 and 29 yards rushing will not cut it in the NFL. Seattle allows 2.9 yards per carry but passing wise have yielded more than 300 yards per game.

The defensive unit, has not forced turnovers or sacks, but has pieces: DT Dexter Lawrence, rookie standout Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE Leonard Williams, safety Xavier McKinney and CB Adoree' Jackson. This unit keeps going backwards. Again, squabbling with media only makes things look worse for a unit that cannot get off the field on third down (51% stop rate - 29th in the NFL).

New York's defense gave up 441 yards of offense (300 passing) to San Francisco. They were poor against Dallas and not much better for 2 1/2 quarters versus Arizona. The New York Giants need to create some turnovers or a spark on Monday night.


Are The Giants Out Of The Playoffs?

As of now, no, the Giants are not out of playoff contention. Every team is still alive in the playoff hunt for 2023 as the NFL season has not yet kicked off. The NFL's first game is scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 7, and games will continue throughout that weekend.

I'll update here each week during the NFL season to get updates on the Giants' playoff chances and playoff picture as their odds change.

It is early but Week 3 saw the New York Giants fall below 20% to make the playoffs. The playoff picture, at 1-2 looks grim. New York faces Seattle, before heading to Miami and Buffalo. Seattle is a must win now.

The New York Giants' playoff chances are 19% which rank dead last in the division. behind the Dallas Cowboys at 80%. Even Washington remains ahead in playoff chances at 23.81%. Philadelphia is up to 93.33% to make the postseason after Week 3.

When it comes to the Giants' chances in the NFC East, a touch schedule with injuries is a recipe for disaster. PFF ranked it as the roughest in the league. The New York Giants are +3500 through three weeks whereas Washington is now +1800.

So far, the New York Giants are 1-2 in 2023. Here are the current 2023 NFC East standings:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles 3-0
  2. Dallas Cowboys 2-1
  3. Washington Commanders 2-1
  4. New York Giants 1-1

The Philadelphia Eagles went to the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas was eliminated in the Wild Card round by the San Francisco 49ers. The Commanders struggled to a .500 mark and did not make the playoffs.

This year New York has watched Philadelphia win all three games while Dallas and Washington are now both 2-1 after losses last week.

Where Do The Giants Rank In The NFC Playoff Standings?

New York narrowly made the playoffs in 2022, going 3-6-1 in their final 10 games. The red flags have surfaced early in 2023. At 1-2, the Giants playoff standing is on thin ice.

The New York Giants rank 12th in odds to win the NFC, which puts them on the outside looking in as seven teams make the playoffs. As for Super Bowl numbers, the Giants are tied for 11th among NFC teams at +7500. New York is now tied for 21st among all NFL teams. The team needs a win anyway they can get one.

Where Do The Giants Rank In The NFC Wild Card Race

As the 2023 season just began, New York is in a huge fight for their playoff lives – and on par with the Bears, Panthers, and Vikings. The Giants next three games may tell us a lot about their fate even before that softer Weeks 7-15 stretch begins.

As it stands after Week 3, the New York Giants are in a battle with teams such as Minnesota, Chicago and Carolina to stay near the seventh seed in the NFC. Carolina is 0-3 and has only better NFC odds than Arizona, while Minnesota dropped to 23.81% after losing to San Diego. Now, Atlanta, Green Bay, and Detroit are above 50%.

New York needs to win against Seattle. Period.

Can The Giants Get The No. 1 Seed?

The New York Giants' chances in gaining the No. 1 seed are almost zero. Two games behind Philadelphia and San Francisco already is bad enough but their upcoming schedule is not pleasant to say the least. A wildcard spot is even looking more realistic than a first round bye.

Philadelphia are +300 to win the NFC, Dallas is +450 and the Giants are +5000. That is telling.

The Eagles and Giants close the season facing off in Weeks 16 and 18. New York almost needs to sweep those games just to make the playoffs or have any hope for a slightly higher seed than seventh. At 1-2, the New York Giants again need a healthy Barkley and better line of scrimmage play offensively and defensively.

Any first-round bye (or better) is almost gone if Barkley is out several more weeks. Daniel Jones cannot seem to get out of his own way at times. New York must open up the offense and somehow provide Jones time to work. Anything less means curtains.

Giants Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The New York Giants are in big trouble for 2023. Brian Daboll and his coaching staff need to spring an upset or two. When it comes to the New York Giants, making plays has to happen on both sides of the ball. Right now, that is not occurring.

This Giants team is still not generating turnovers or sacks or much of anything on defense. Again, this group made third down stops and got timely plays. Players such as Daniel Jones and the receiving corps must step up and soon.

TE Darren Waller took a step back in Week 3 with three catches on seven targets. That raised some worries. New York needs to push back defenses while blowing up backfields themselves to even consider making the postseason.

Sadly, the first three weeks have the Giants about where they expected to be. However, being outscored by 55 points was not part of the plan. Balance and explosive plays are needed. If New York does not figure things out soon, the Baltusrol Golf Club will be taking early January tee times.

New York Giants' Playoffs FAQs


Chris Wassel is a sports writer who has covered hockey and sports betting for many years. He was a beat writer for the New Jersey Devils and worked at several sites. In his 15-plus years of writing, Chris has written for places ranging from USA Today to Canada Sports Betting, numberFire, NHL Rumors, and beyond.

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