Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances: Tracking the Bills Playoff Picture After Free Agency

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane

  • The Buffalo Bills finished last season 11-6, winning the AFC East.
  • The Bills lost in the AFC Divisional Round to the Chiefs.
  • Buffalo is looking to bolster its roster through free agency and the draft.

The Bills' playoff chances are sky-high after winning the division in 2023. Now, their focus is on the free agency period and adding more starters to their roster. With a strong defense and a superstar signal caller coming back, 2024 should be another winning season in Buffalo.

Josh Allen looks to the left

What are the Bills Playoff Chances?

The Bills' playoff chances are not available yet, but they are the favorite to win the AFC East with +130 odds, according to DraftKings Sportsbook New York.

🔥 Bills Playoff ChancesTBA
🚫 Bills Miss PlayoffsTBA
👑 Bills Win Super Bowl9.1% chance
🏆 Bills Win AFC16.7% chance
⭐️ Bills Win AFC East43.5% chance
Odds Last VerifiedJune 6, 2024

To calculate those percentages, I converted the odds into an implied probability. Soon, each NFL team will have odds of making or missing the playoffs, which converts to an implied probability of making or missing the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills have their sights set on free agency and the NFL Draft to finely tune their already talented roster in hopes of a Lombardi Trophy. Most recently, Buffalo added more weapons for QB Josh Allen in veteran wideouts Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.

Bills Schedule and Betting Lines

The full NFL schedule won't be released until later this year; however, the league announced home and away opponents for each team.

Here's a look at every team on the Bills 2024 schedule:

Home Opponents:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • New York Jets
  • New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Kansas City Chiefs

Away Opponents:

  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • New York Jets
  • New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Detroit Lions

Buffalo will be favored in a majority of its early games due to their high expectations.

Bills Playoff Chances: Key Updates June 2024

  • 📅 March 14, 2024: The Bills lose WR Gabe Davis to the Jaguars in free agency, then immediately sign wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins to replace him.
  • 📅 March 6, 2024: Buffalo releases two defensive starters - CB Tre'Davious White and S Jordan Poyer - to free agency due to salary cap constraints.
  • 📅 Jan. 21, 2024: The Bills are eliminated at home by Kansas City, making it the second consecutive season the Chiefs ended Buffalo's season.
  • 📅 Jan. 15, 2024: Buffalo handles Pittsburgh, 31-17, in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs.
  • 📅 Dec. 17, 2023: Bills rout Cowboys 30-10.
  • 📅 Dec. 10, 2023: Bills beat Chiefs 20-17.
  • 📅 Dec. 9, 2023: Bills activate TE Dawson Knox off injured reserve.
  • 📅 Nov. 26, 2023: Bills lose 37-34 in OT to the Eagles.
  • 📅 Nov. 19, 2023: Bills rout Jets 32-6.
  • 📅 Nov. 14, 2023: Bills fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.
  • 📅 Nov. 13, 2023: Bills lose 24-22 to the Broncos.
  • 📅 Nov. 5, 2023: Bills lose 24-18 to the Bengals.

Bookmark this page for more news updates on the Buffalo Bills throughout the season.

Bills Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The Bills currently have a 65.3% chance of making the playoffs and we will be updating it after every single game throughout the NFL season.

↔️ Preseason72.6% chance
After Week 166.7% chance
After Week 271.4% chance
After Week 375% chance
After Week 485.7% chance
After Week 582.6% chance
After Week 682.6% chance
After Week 763.6% chance
After Week 864.3% chance
After Week 954.5% chance
After Week 1036.2% chance
After Week 1138.5% chance
After Week 1221.7% chance
After Week 1321.1% chance
After Week 1450% chance
After Week 1565.3% chance

Key Contributors Towards Bills Playoff Chances

The Bills are led by quarterback Josh Allen, who is one of the best players in the NFL, and his MVP odds shortened after the Bills' win over the Cowboys as it's now at +800, which is good for third.

Also in the NFL honors conversation, safety Damar Hamlin did not win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award despite carrying nearly a 90% chance to win. Cleveland QB Joe Flacco won the award after joining the team late in the season and guiding them to the postseason.

On defense, Buffalo will be led by their defensive line featuring Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, and Leonard Floyd as well as starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Both dealt with injuries last season.

Where Can I Bet on the Bills to Make the Playoffs?

Currently, you can bet on the Bills' playoff chances at BetMGM NY, DraftKings NY, and any other NY sportsbook.

The Bills are now favored to miss the playoffs, but if you have faith in Buffalo to make the playoffs, most NY sportsbooks will offer these betting options.

Looking Ahead: Bills' Playoff Picture

The Bills are now favored to make the playoffs for the first time since Week 9. The Bills have not missed the playoffs since 2018, but Buffalo is still not favored to win the AFC East for the first time since 2019.

The Bills are coming off a disappointing season, having been blown out by the Bengals in the AFC Division Round after making the AFC Championship game the year prior.

Buffalo, however, will enter the season without Pro Bowl LB Tremaine Edmunds, who left in free agency to sign with the Chicago Bears. Who starts in his place is yet to be determined, but Tyrel Dodson has been getting the bulk of first-team reps in practice and preseason games.

Do the Bills Have A Chance To Make The Playoffs?

Yes, the Buffalo Bills have a chance of making the playoffs. The Bills sit at a 65.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Are the Bills Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Bills are not out of the playoffs as Buffalo is 8-6. FanDuel is giving Buffalo a 34.7% chance of missing the playoffs, but the Bills remain outside looking in through 15 weeks.

Where Do the Buffalo Bills Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

Buffalo is currently the ninth seed in the AFC playoff standings as the Bills are not in a playoff spot.

Where Do the Buffalo Bills Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?

The Bills are currently holding onto the ninth seed in the AFC, but have the same record as the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts who holding onto the final two wild card spots.

Can the Buffalo Bills Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Bills still can get the No. 1 seed in the AFC, although it is unlikely. One more win for the Ravens or a loss for Buffalo rules out the chances of getting the No. 1 seed.

Bills Postseason Outlook and Predictions

As long as Josh Allen is at quarterback, the Bills are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. However, a knock on offense is at wide receiver, where the Bills do not have a clear-cut No. 2 option behind Stefon Diggs.

The big news for the Bills was the fact they were able to re-sign S Jordan Poyer. LB Von Miller is expected to be back in the first few weeks, which gives Buffalo's pass rush a huge boost. The defense will be intensely watched after it struggled against the Bengals in the playoffs last season, and after losing Pro Bowl LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency.

Ultimately, Buffalo is one of the most complete teams in the NFL and should be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and will likely win the AFC East for the fourth straight year.

Photo Courtesy of USA Today

Buffalo Bills Playoffs FAQ


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