Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances Week 4: Tracking the Bills Playoff Picture

By Cole Shelton
Fact Checked by Shannon Lane

3 Key Takeaways

  • The Bills' playoff chances are 75% according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which is up from 71.4% following their Week 3 win.
  • The Bills have a 37.7% chance to win the division. Buffalo's odds got worse despite beating the Washington Commanders in Week 3 to improve to 2-1.
  • The Bills' Super Bowl LVIII odds are +1000, giving them a 9.1% chance to win. Buffalo is tied for the fifth-best odds following their Week 3 win.

The Bills have made the playoffs for four straight years and have won the AFC East three straight seasons. With QB Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills continue to have one of the best offenses in the NFL and remain a Super Bowl contender.

Josh Allen at Bills Practice

However, with the AFC East getting tougher, the Bills' Super Bowl odds have gone down slightly since May. I will be tracking Buffalo's playoff chances and Super Bowl odds throughout the season.

What are the Bills’ Playoff Chances?

The Bills' playoff chances are 75%, according to DraftKings New York. Buffalo spent most of the offseason improving its offensive line. The table below shows the Bills' chances to make the playoffs, win the AFC East, win the AFC, win the Super Bowl, and more data for context.

πŸ”₯ Bills Playoff Chances75% Chance
🚫 Bills Miss Playoffs25% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Bills Win Super Bowl9.1% Chance
πŸ† Bills Win AFC15.4% Chance
⭐️ Bills Win AFC East37.7% Chance
🏈 Bills ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)8.6 FPI
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

To get the percent chance, I converted the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook into an implied probability. Every NFL team has odds to make or miss the playoffs, which converts to an implied probability of making or missing the playoffs. DraftKings currently has the Bills at -300 to make the playoffs, which converts into a 75% chance of making the postseason.

Following Buffalo's disappointing loss to the New York Jets, the Bills rebounded nicely with a 38-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in their home opener. Buffalo still has the second-best odds to win the AFC and having the fifth-best chances to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings. Along with looking at the Bills' playoff chances, I will also be tracking the New York Times’ Postseason Simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index to gauge the Bills' progress.

Bills Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The Bills currently have a 75% chance of making the playoffs and we will be updating it after every single game throughout the NFL season.

↔️ Preseason72.6% chance
After Week 166.7% chance
After Week 271.4% chance
After Week 275% chance

Bills Schedule and Betting Lines

Below is a week-by-week look at the Bills schedule, each game's point spread and the latest Bills moneyline.

πŸ“… Week 1 @ New York Jets🏈 Bills (0-1) lose 22-16 (OT)
πŸ“… Week 2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders🏈 Bills (1-1) win 38-10
πŸ“… Week 3 @ Washington Commanders🏈 Bills (2-1) win 37-3
πŸ“… Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins🏈 Bills -2.5, ML -135
πŸ“… Week 5 vs. JAX (London)🏈 Bills -3.5, ML -170
πŸ“… Week 6 vs. NYG (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Bills - 7, ML -298
πŸ“… Week 7 @ New England Patriots🏈 Bills -3.5, ML -175
πŸ“… Week 8 vs. TB (Thursday Night Football)🏈 Bills -10, ML -440
πŸ“… Week 9 @ CIN (Sunday Night Football)🏈 Bills +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 10 vs. DEN (Monday Night Football)🏈 Bills -6, ML -245
πŸ“… Week 11 vs. New York Jets🏈 Bills -4, ML -185
πŸ“… Week 12 @ Philadelphia Eagles🏈 Bills +2.5, ML +110
πŸ“… Week 13🏈 BYE
πŸ“… Week 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs🏈 Bills +3.5, ML +145
πŸ“… Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys🏈 Bills -4, ML -192
πŸ“… Week 16 @ LAC (Saturday)🏈 Bills -1, ML -115
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. NE (New Year's Eve)🏈 Bills -6.5, ML -270
πŸ“… Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins🏈 Bills +1.5, ML +102
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

The Bills are above .500 for the first time this season following a blowout win over the Washington Commanders in Week 3. Buffalo will now host the Miami Dolphins in Week 4 in a massive game for the AFC East.

Outside of division games, Nov. 5 is a date Bills fans have circled as Buffalo travels to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Cincinnati, of course, eliminated the Bills from the playoffs last season.

Buffalo will also be paying close attention to back-to-back games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. Luckily for Buffalo, its bye week falls between those games.

Bills Playoff Chances: Key Updates September 2023

  • πŸ“… Sept. 24: Bills rout Commanders 37-3 in Week 3.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 17: Bills beat Raiders 38-10 in Week 2.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 12: Bills lose 22-16 to the Jets in Week 1.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 5: Bills restructure contracts of Ryan Bates and Taron Johnson.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 30: Bills name Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tyler Matakevich as captains.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 29: Bills place Von Miller on PUP, to miss first four games.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 22: Bills sign LB DaShaun White.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 21: Bills sign RB Ty Johnson and OT Garrett McGhin.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 21: Bills DE Shane Ray placed on season-ending IR.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 20: Bills OT Tommy Doyle ruled out for the season with a knee injury.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 19: Bills lose 27-15 in preseason action to the Steelers.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 15: Bills OT Brandon Shell announces retirement from NFL.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 12: Bills beat Colts 23-19 in first preseason game.
  • πŸ“… July 28: Bills sign WR Andy Isabella to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… July 25: Bills place RB/KR Nyheim Hines on Reserve/NFI (non-football injury) list. 
  • πŸ“… July 23: Bills announce contract extensions for head coach Sean McDermot and GM Brandon Beane through the 2027 season.
  • πŸ“… June 13: WR Stefon Diggs meets with team leaders and doctors in Buffalo, but does not participate in minicamp.
  • πŸ“… June 6: Bills sign DE Leonard Floyd to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… June 5: Bills sign DT Ed Oliver to a four-year contract extension.
  • πŸ“… May 23: WR Stefon Diggs is among Bills players skipping OTAs.
  • πŸ“… May 2: The Bills sign DT Poona Ford.
  • πŸ“… May 1: The Bills sign RB Latavius Murray to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… April 29: Florida WR Justin Shorter, Ole Miss guard Nick Broeker and Oregon St. CB Alex Austin are drafted on Day 3.
  • πŸ“… April 28: Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence and Tulane LB Dorian Williams are drafted on Day 2.
  • πŸ“… April 27: The Bills draft Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to bolster their tight end room.
  • πŸ“… April 20: Buffalo signs kicker Tyler Bass to a four-year, $21M contract extension.
  • πŸ“… April 18: The Bills re-sign DE Shaq Lawson to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… April 17: Buffalo re-signs LB A.J. Klein to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… April 6: The Bills re-sign DT Jordan Phillips to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 31: Buffalo signs safety Taylor Rapp to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 21: The Bills sign former Patriots RB Damien Harris to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 17: The Bills release WR Isaiah McKenzie and re-sign CB Dane Jackson to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 16: The Bills sign QB Kyle Allen, guard Connor McGovern, and WR Deonte Harty to strengthen their offense.
  • πŸ“… March 15: The Bills re-sign safety Jordan Poyer to a two-year deal.
  • πŸ“… March 12: Buffalo re-signs starting LB Matt Milano to a two-year contract extension.
  • πŸ“… Feb. 28: The Bills announce defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is taking a leave of absence. He has been the team’s defensive coordinator since 2017.

Bookmark this page for more news updates on the Buffalo Bills throughout the season.

Key Contributors Towards Bills Playoff Chances

The Bills are led by quarterback Josh Allen, who is one of the best players in the NFL and has the fourth-highest odds to win MVP (+850).

Also in NFL honors conversation, safety Damar Hamlin has a 51.2% chance of winning Comeback Player of the Year after his miraculous recovery from suffering cardiac arrest on the field vs. the Bengals last season. However, that number dropped has continued to drop after Hamlin was a healthy scratch in the first three weeks.

On defense, Buffalo will be led by Matt Milano at linebacker and starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Both dealt with injuries last season.

Where Can I Bet on the Bills to Make the Playoffs?

Currently, you can bet on the Bills' playoff chances at BetMGM NY, DraftKings NY, and any other NY sportsbook.

Although the Bills are sizable favorites to make the playoffs, betting them not to make the playoffs is also an option. With the NFL being massive, it is anticipated that all NY sportsbooks will offer these betting options. I will keep you informed as these other books release these lines.

Visit BetMGM.com for T&Cs. Must be 21+ and physically present in NY only. New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

Looking Ahead: Bills' Playoff Picture

The Bills are expected to make the playoffs next season and are one of the Super Bowl favorites entering the season. However, Buffalo is no longer the favorite to win the AFC East after their Week 1 loss.

The Bills are coming off a disappointing season, having been blown out by the Bengals in the AFC Division Round after making the AFC Championship game the year prior.

Buffalo, however, will enter the season without Pro Bowl LB Tremaine Edmunds, who left in free agency to sign with the Chicago Bears. Who starts in his place is yet to be determined, but Tyrel Dodson has been getting the bulk of first-team reps in practice and preseason games.

Do the Bills Have A Chance To Make The Playoffs?

Yes, the Buffalo Bills have a chance of making the playoffs. With the season not yet having started, every NFL team has a chance to make the playoffs – some just have a better chance than others. The Bills sit at a 75% chance of making the playoffs, which is the sixth-best odds in the NFL of making the postseason.

Are The Bills Out Of The Playoffs?

No, the Bills are not out of the playoffs even though Buffalo lost in Week 1. DraftKings is giving Buffalo a 33.3% chance of missing the playoffs, which means the Bills are expected to be in the playoffs when the season ends.

Where Do The Buffalo Bills Rank In The AFC East?

The Bills have the second-best odds to win the AFC East and make the playoffs in their division.

The Miami Dolphins have the best odds to win the division after Week 3 at -160 which translates to a 61.5% chance while having an 90% chance of making the playoffs.

The New England Patriots have the third-best odds to win the division at +1800, which translates to a 5.3% chance and a 23.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Finally, the New York Jets have the worst odds to win the division at +2800, which translates to a 3.4% chance, as it has taken a massive hit following Aaron Rodgers being done for the season. New York sports betting apps The Jets also have a 13.3% chance of making the playoffs.

If the Bills are going to win the AFC East, winning their in-division games will be crucial, as always, and in Week 4, Buffalo hosts the 3-0 Miami Dolphins.

Where Do the Buffalo Bills Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

Buffalo currently has the third-best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC, and the third-best odds to win the AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins have better odds than the Bills to win the AFC..

Where Do the Buffalo Bills Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?

The Bills are currently in a Wild Card spot but still have 14 more games to play. At 2-1, Buffalo can take control of the AFC East with a win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.

Can the Buffalo Bills Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Bills still can get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Buffalo only trails the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins. But, the Bills play the Chiefs once and the Dolphins twice this season which are massive games to determine who will be the AFC's No. 1 seed.


Who to Root for if You're a Bills Fan

Bills fans should just be rooting for Buffalo right now, but as the season goes on we will update key games to watch in terms of how they will impact the Bills' playoff chances.

Bills Postseason Outlook and Predictions

As long as Josh Allen is at quarterback, the Bills are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. However, a knock on offense is at wide receiver, where the Bills do not have a clear-cut No. 2 option behind Stefon Diggs.

The big news for the Bills was the fact they were able to re-sign S Jordan Poyer. LB Von Miller is expected to be back in the first few weeks, which gives Buffalo's pass rush a huge boost. The defense will be intensely watched after it struggled against the Bengals in the playoffs last season, and after losing Pro Bowl LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency.

Ultimately, Buffalo is one of the most complete teams in the NFL and should be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and will likely win the AFC East for the fourth straight year.

Buffalo Bills Playoffs FAQ


Cole Shelton is an NFL sports betting expert for EmpireStakes.com, focusing on the Bills' playoff chances and Super Bowl odds. His work has appeared in several sports and fantasy outlets, including Rotowire, CBS Sports and Sportskeeda. With a background in sports betting that ranges from NFL to MMA, his wide-reaching knowledge will surely deliver the best information for Bills fans and New York bettors.

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