When Will Bills Suffer Their First Loss?

When Will Bills Suffer Their First Loss?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

The Buffalo Bills opened up the 2022 season with a win over the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. A week later, they destroyed the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football before eventually falling to the Dolphins in Miami in Week 3.

New York sportsbooks widely expect Buffalo to be Super Bowl contenders in 2023, so it won’t be surprising if they win 13 or more games this season.

So, that begs the question: When will the Bills suffer their first loss this year? EmpireStakes.com compiled hypothetical odds on when the Bills’ first defeat will come in 2023.

Hypothetical Odds on When Bills Will Lose 1st Game

Here are numbers you won’t find on any New York sports betting apps.

WeekOpponentOddsPercent Chance
1at NY Jets+10050%
2vs. Raiders+12507.4%
3at Commanders+90010%
4at Dolphins+35022.2%
5vs. Jaguars+10009.1%
- Past Week 5+45002.1%


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Assessing Bills’ Early Schedule

The most difficult game for the Bills in the first month of the season could come in Week 1 as they will take on the Jets in New York on Monday Night Football. They will face Aaron Rodgers in prime time, which could be a challenge considering how balanced the Jets are on both sides of the ball.

Both the Jets and Bills Super Bowl odds should stay strong, at least early in the season.

According to our hypothetical odds, the Bills have a 50% chance to lose that game. Buffalo is only slightly favored on the road on most sportsbooks. However, it is against an opponent that the Bills have had success against recently and it’s certainly going to take a while for the Jets to gel with a new quarterback under center.

But if the Bills win in Week 1, there is a good chance that they could start the season off with a 5-0 record. Earlier, EmpireStakes.com took a closer look at the Bills September track record. The game with the highest chance of losing during that span comes in Week 4 when the Bills host the Miami Dolphins. While the Bills have had the fair share of losses against the Dolphins, they’ve won seven consecutive matchups in Buffalo.

With one of the top teams in the NFL and a very manageable start to the year, you have to like the Bills’ playoff chances again this season. They are favored in every single game in the first five weeks of the season, but expect them to slip up somewhere with the most likely loss coming in Week 1 against the Jets. 



Marcus Mosher covers the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news for EmpireStakes.com. The managing editor of The Raiders Wire is also a contributor to The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly and FanSided, and previously wrote for FanRag Sports. He hosts Locked On Cowboys Podcast.

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