Judge on Pace to Break Yankees & AL Record for Home Runs in a Season

Judge on Pace to Break Yankees & AL Record for Home Runs in a Season
By Lou Monaco

The New York Yankees (71-39, .645) snapped their longest losing streak of the year — five games — with a 9-4 road victory Monday night against the Seattle Mariners with the help of the league’s home run leader, Aaron Judge, who hit his 44th of the season. 

Currently, Judge leads the major leagues in three other categories: RBI (98), runs scored (93) and total bases (273), but it’s the home run chase that everyone is keeping an eye on. 

At NY sportsbooks, the Yankees are the favorites to win the American League and trail the Los Angeles Dodgers in World Series odds.

Judge is 10 home runs shy of tying Alex Rodriguez (2007), Mickey Mantle (1961) and Babe Ruth (1928, 1920) on the all-time Yankees single-season home run list at 54. He’s 16 away from Ruth’s 60 (1927) and 17 away from the team’s all-time leader of 61, Roger Maris in 1961, which is also the American League record. 

In 2001, San Francisco Giants outfielder Barry Bonds set the single-season MLB record of 73 home runs. 

Here Comes The Judge

Prior to Tuesday night’s second game of the three-game road series against the Mariners, Judge is currently on pace to hit 65 home runs, according to MLB.com. 

Through 110 games, Judge is currently tied with St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Mark McGwire (1999), who also hit 44 blasts en route to 65 on the season. He was the third-fastest to 60 in league history. 

McGwire hit 45 home runs in 110 games en route to 70 in 1998 and Bonds hit 46 in the same time frame toward his record-setting total in 2001. 

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Here is the pace countdown to 60 HRs through 110 games played single-season career leaders: 

All-Time Record-Setting HR Paces

Year Player HRs Through 110 Games Season HRs
2001 Barry Bonds, Giants 4673
1998 Mark McGwire, Cardinals 4570
1998 Sammy Sosa, Cubs 4466
2022 Aaron Judge, Yankees 4465*
1999McGwire, Cardinals 4465
1999Sosa, Cubs 4263
1961Roger Maris, Yankees 4161
2001Sosa, Cubs 3764
1927Babe Ruth, Yankees 3660

*Projected


Future Odds on Judge

Judge is the overwhelming favorite to be the MLB home run leader and the odds show as he is currently -1400 at Caesars Sportsbook NY. Trailing is the Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber, who is at 34 home runs on the season, at +1000. 

An interesting prop on Caesars is an over/under 60.5 home runs hit by Judge during the regular season. 

For Judge to hit over 60.5, his odds are a nice price at +100. The under total is the favorite at a modest -130. 

In the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) race, Judge has provided some distance over the past couple of weeks and is a solid -650 favorite at the best betting apps NY over Los Angeles Angels pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani at +450. 

2022 Home Run Title Odds

Player Odds
Aaron Judge, Yankees -1400
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies +1000
Yordan Alvarez, Astros +2000
Austin Riley, Braves +3000
Pete Alonso, Mets +5000

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook NY


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Contributors

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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