In Which Series Is Judge Most Likely to Break Maris’s Yankees HR Record?

In Which Series Is Judge Most Likely to Break Maris’s Yankees HR Record?
By Lou Monaco
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

New York Yankees fans are focused on their first-place team, for sure, but their attention is also locked into Aaron Judge’s torrid rush toward history.

Sharp people in New York sports betting know what fans see nightly: Judge is a threat to launch a gigantic blast any time he steps to the plate.

Judge went without a home run last night but wowed the Fenway Park crowd with two home runs in Tuesday’s 7-6, 10-inning win.

Judge is now at 57 home runs, which is an incredible 20 more than the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber, who is second in MLB at 37.

Much more importantly, the Yankees’ slugger is just four away from tying the well-known franchise record of 61, set more than 60 years ago by Roger Maris in 1961.

Judge went 1-for-4 Wednesday night, keeping his average at .310, which is within striking distance of the Minnesota Twins’ Luis Arraez (.320) for the AL lead.  That, plus his runaway lead in homers and commanding edge in RBI, gives him a shot at the Triple Crown.

Major League Baseball’s last Triple Crown winner was the Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Before that, Boston’s Carl Yastrzemski won in 1967.

The last Yankees player to take the Triple Crown was Mickey Mantle in 1956 (.353 with 52 home runs and 130 RBI).

 

When Will Judge Reach 61?

A lot can happen, of course, but fans and folks with NY sports betting apps certainly think Judge reaching and surpassing Maris is not a matter of if, but when.

With 19 games remaining, here is a look at the New York’s remaining schedule:

  • Sept. 15: Off
  • Sept. 16-18: at Milwaukee (3)
  • Sept. 19: Off
  • Sept. 20-21: vs. Pittsburgh (2)
  • Sept. 22-25: vs. Boston (4)
  • Sept. 26-28: at Toronto (3)
  • Sept. 30-Oct. 2: vs. Baltimore (3)
  • Oct. 3-5: at Texas (4)*

*Oct. 4 a scheduled doubleheader

EmpireStakes.com, utilizing BaseballReference.com, used Judge’s average home run rate per plate appearance to set hypothetical odds for when Yankees history will made with No. 62.

>
SeriesPct. ChanceOdds
⚾ at Milwaukee0.8%+12400
⚾ vs. Pittsburgh8.7%+1050
⚾ vs. Boston34.1%+193
⚾ at Toronto40%+150
⚾ at Baltimore16.4%+510

 

Ranking Judge in the Moment

MLB.com has interesting info on where Judge’s 57 home runs ranked after reaching 142 games with two blasts Tuesday.

*projected home runs
YearPlayerThru 142End of Season
⚾  2001Barry Bonds6073
⚾  1998Mark McGwire5970
⚾  1998Sammy Sosa5866
⚾  2022Aaron Judge57*65
⚾  1999Mark McGwire5565
⚾  2001Sammy Sosa5464
⚾  1999Sammy Sosa5963
⚾  1961Roger Maris5561
⚾  1927Babe Ruth5260

Currently on pace to hit 65 home runs, Judge’s 57 blasts are the most ever hit by a Bronx Bomber through 145 games, ahead of the paces set by Babe Ruth (56 in 1921) and Maris (55 in 1961).

New York (87-56, .608) holds a six-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays (81-62) and a 7.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East chase.

Count on EmpireStakes.com to provide a close watch on Judge chasing the record as well as for the best NY betting promos.

 

Latest Judge, Yankees Future Odds

As of Thursday morning, Judge is a heavy -355 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook NY to break the record at over 61.5. The odds for him at under 61.5 are +275.

Judge also leads in the American League Most Valuable Player Award race as well, per national FanDuel odds, at an overwhelming -6000 favorite with the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani a distant second at +1500. Remember, though, that you cannot bet in New York on player awards decided by a vote.

The Yankees are a -2200 favorite in New York MLB betting at FanDuel NY to win the AL East, +230 to win the American League (second to the Houston Astros at +155) and +500 to win the World Series (third behind the Los Angeles Dodgers +310 and Astros +400). The Yankees leapfrogged the New York Mets (now fourth at +500) overnight. 

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Contributors

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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