Does Preseason-Favorite History Show How 2022 Bills Will Perform?

Does Preseason-Favorite History Show How 2022 Bills Will Perform?
By Lou Monaco
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

With a week to go before opening the season Thursday, Sept. 8 at the Super Bowl defending champion Los Angeles Rams, the Buffalo Bills are the favorite throughout New York sports betting to be the next NFL champion.

As it relates to the opening game against the Rams (NBC, 8:20), the Bills are favored by 2.5 points and -135 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook NY. The Rams are +115 underdog, with the total over/under points set at 52.5.

As it relates to NFL betting in New York for the season overall, Caesars Sportsbook NY lists the Bills as the favorite at +600, after opening the future bets season at +650. Buffalo has 10% of tickets and 14% of the handle, both of which are currently tops at Caesars.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are second at +750, with the Rams and Kansas City Chiefs tied at +1100 apiece. The Green Bay Packers (+1200) round out the top five. 

Over at FanDuel NY, the Bills also lead the field at +600, with the Bucs second at +750 and the Chiefs third at +1000.

How Do Preseason Favorites Perform?

Being the preseason Super Bowl favorite on NY betting apps is a nice tribute to the Bills, but what does it really mean? How does being the preseason favorite pan out in recent NFL history?

EmpireStakes.com aimed to find out and tell you.

EmpireStakes.com looked at the trends of preseason favorites since 2010 to see what the Bills fans should expect in 2022-23.

EmpireStakes.com utilized ProFootballReference.com to determine the statistics and trends that we found by gathering the preseason favorites in betting odds from 2010 to 2021. The betting odds were an average of 10+ sportsbooks on the day before that NFL season

EmpireStakes.com will provide top coverage of the Bills as well as the New York Giants and New York Jets this season. The website also brings the best NY betting promos.

The historical preseason odds were courtesy of sportshistory.com.

Diving into the Numbers

Only twice has the preseason favorite the week before the season won the Super Bowl in the past 12 years. Both times, it was the New England Patriots.

2018: New England Patriots 13, LA Rams 3 
2016: New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons, 28 (Falcons held a 28-3 lead)

Over the last six seasons, two teams have dominated the preseason favorite ranks: The Chiefs and the Patriots.

From 2019-2021, the Chiefs compiled a regular season record of 38-11, making two Super Bowls and winning one (2019).

From 2016-18, the Patriots compiled a 38-10 record with three consecutive Super Bowl appearances. They won twice (following 2016 and 2018 seasons), but lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017, 41-33.

Here is a look at the averages for the preseason Super Bowl favorites since 2010.

Avg. W-L Record12-4*
Over-Under Wins Record7-4-1
% of Favorites Make Super Bowl58.3%
Favorites That Won Super Bowl2

* Rounded to nearest whole numbers.


Going back before 2010, four favorites have gone on to win.

  • 2006: Indianapolis Colts
  • 1993: Dallas Cowboys
  • 1989: San Francisco 49ers
  • 1988: San Francisco 49ers

What will all this mean this season? Will there be a Super Bowl parade in the state of New York?

We’ll see, as the story unfolds, starting Thursday.

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Contributors

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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