Over the last several years, we have seen some all-time great quarterbacks switch teams. It seems like it’s becoming more common than ever to see one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history make a move later in their career.
The latest quarterback to make a late-career team switch is Aaron Rodgers, who, like Brett Favre, is moving on from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets. After 18 years with the Packers, Rodgers is hoping to find more success in New York than Favre.
But how often do all-time great quarterbacks like Rodgers have success in their first year with their new team?
EmpireStakes.com – your source for sports betting in New York– wanted to find out.
Look at how other Hall of Fame (and future Hall of Fame) quarterbacks have done in their first year with a new team. The data from this chart was collected from Pro-Football-Reference.com with all stats following the AFL-NFL Merger ahead of the 1966 season.
Hall of Fame-Level QBs with New Teams
Brady Again No. 1
The most successful move for a Hall of Fame quarterback was Tom Brady, who won a Super Bowl in his first year with the Buccaneers. Brady threw 40 touchdowns and started all 16 games for the Buccaneers.
Peyton Manning also had a very strong initial season (2012) with the Broncos, leading them to a 13-3 record. But Manning’s best season with the team came in 2013, when he threw the most touchdowns ever in a season (55) and most passing yards (5,477).
Drew Brees is another quarterback who switched teams and had success, but he did it at a much younger age than Rodgers. Brees was 27 when he joined the Saints in free agency, but he was coming off a major shoulder injury. In his first year with New Orleans, he led the NFL in passing yards (4,418) and finished second in the MVP voting.
But the most comparable situation for Rodgers is obviously Favre. Favre was 39 when he joined the Jets, which just so happens to be exactly how old Rodgers will be heading into the 2023 season. However, Rodgers is hoping to have more success than Brett Favre in New York.
During the 2008 season, Favre threw 22 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He led the team to a 9-7 record, but the Jets were unable to make the postseason and Favre retired again that offseason (before eventually returning to the Vikings). Favre did make the Pro Bowl that year, but he led the NFL in interceptions and averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt. While he certainly wasn’t a bad quarterback for the Jets, Favre was unable to make a real impact in New York.
New York betting apps expect Rodgers to fare much better.
The Jets (+2000) are seventh among favorites for the Super Bowl at BetRiversNY.
They trail the Kansas City Chiefs (+600), Philadelphia Eagles (+700), Buffalo Bills (+900), Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers (+1000) and Dallas Cowboys (+1500).
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Other QBs Who Struggled with New Teams
Other Hall of Fame quarterbacks who struggled in Year 1 with their new teams include Ken Stabler (Oilers), Warren Moon (Vikings), and Kurt Warner (Giants). Moon and Warner did have success later in their careers, but it did take them some time to adjust to new situations.
Rodgers is just a year removed from winning the MVP award, so it’s reasonable to think that he can quickly get back to being a top 10 quarterback. However, expecting him to have as much success as Tom Brady in Tampa Bay or Peyton Manning in Denver seems a bit unrealistic. Still, expect Rodgers to have at least as much success as Favre did in New York.