2024 Presidential Election Odds: Who Will Run For President In 2024?

By Joe Short
Fact Checked by Lawrence Hollyfield

Although New York sports betting laws do not allow betting on presidential elections, as soon as Joe Biden had been declared the winner over 45th President Donald Trump, sports betting sites across Europe – where political betting is legal – began pricing up who would win the 2024 election.

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2024 Presidential Election Odds Update Nov. 23: Harris, Obama Slide

To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds to become the next President of the United States. 

Nov. 23 update: Florida Gov. RonDeSantis, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden held steady at 1-2-3, but there was a headliner this week: Vice President Kamala Harris fell for the second week in a row and now sits at 18 to 1, meaning she has a 5.3% chance of being elected. She had been at 14 to 1 (6.7%). The dip was enough to push her behind California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who held steady. A little further back in the pack, former First Lady Michelle Obama also took a hit, dropping from 33 to 1 (2.9%) and landing at 40 to 1 (2.4%). 
 

Candidates In Sports

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson played college football at the University of Miami in the early 1990s. He connected briefly with the Canadian Football League’s Calgary Stampeders. He then moved into professional wrestling and acting. Take advantage of the $1,250 offer – promo code EMPIREFULL from Caesars Sportsbook to bet on the University of Miami or, if you prefer professional football, the NFL season is thundering to a dramatic finish and you can claim Bet $50, Get $100 - Promo Code: XSTAKES from WynnBET.

Top 5 Candidates, 2024 US Presidential Election

⭐️ Ron DeSantis+22530.8
⭐️ Donald Trump+35022.2% 
⭐️ Joe Biden+40020.0% 
⭐️ Gavin Newsom+16005.9% 
⭐️ Kamala Harris+18005.3% ↓



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The Rest Of The Field

⭐️ Pete Buttigieg+25003.8%
⭐️ Mike Pence+28003.4% ↓
⭐️ Michelle Obama+33002.9%
⭐️ Nikki Haley+33002.9%
⭐️ Hillary Clinton+50002.0%
⭐️ Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson+50002%
⭐️ Mike Pompeo+50002%
⭐️ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+66001.5%
⭐️ Candace Owens+80001.2%
⭐️ Tucker Carlson+100001%
⭐️ Andrew Yang+100001%
⭐️ Bernie Sanders+100001%
⭐️ Kanye West+100001%
⭐️ Bill Gates+200000.5%
⭐️ Elon Musk+200000.5%
⭐️ Joe Rogan+200000.5%

According to the 2024 election odds listed at Ladbrokes, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (30.8%) has taken the biggest leap of the race so far. Donald Trump still has a 22.2% chance to be the next US President. Current President Joe Biden (20.0%) has been getting stronger through the fall. 

Outside of a few days, Donald Trump (22.2% chance to win in 2024) had been favored since the market opened, but he finds himself solidly in second behind Ron DeSantis (30.8%). The governor of Florida has positioned himself as an alternative to the potentially toxic Trump, while boasting many of the elder statesman’s policies.

Incumbent Joe Biden is at +400 (20.0% chance) in the 2024 presidential odds. His is a remarkably wide price for a sitting president seeking a second term. What’s more, the Democrats seemingly have few other options. Vice President Kamala Harris has 5.3% chance to win the election, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has a 3.8% chance.

In fact, so unclear is the Democratic field for potential 2024 candidates that Michele Obama has a 2.4% chance to become president, ahead of Hillary Clinton (2%).

For now, you won't find any of these political odds on New York betting apps due to betting on politics being prohibited in the Empire State, but our reporters will follow the European sites covering the election to ensure we stay up-to-date on the latest odds.

Latest 2024 President Odds Movement

DeSantis has overtaken Trump in recent US president odds. The GOP leader is considerably in front, but Joe Biden has seen his chances of winning in 2024 rebound after midterm elections, from 15.4% to 18.2% to 20.0%.

The latest president odds movements also show California Gov. Gavin Newsom (5.9%) is less likely to impact the race, while former Vice President Mike Pence (3.4%) took the biggest fall and slid behind Pete Buttigieg. Right now, it looks like the GOP will win the 2024 election. The next question, then, is who will be on the winning ticket?

Who Will Run For President In 2024?

We’re still more than two years out from the 2024 US election – but campaigning will get underway soon. On the Democratic side, incumbent Joe Biden is expected to seek a second term, while VP Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom all could compete to be the Dems' pick.

Meanwhile, the Republican party looks set to choose either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. The big decision for party members centers around Trump’s electability nationwide. He lost the last election by seven million votes. Can he overcome this deficit in 2024?

Which Republicans Are Running For President In 2024?

Trump vs. DeSantis could be one heck of a showdown. Trump doesn’t take prisoners when debating, but DeSantis is a popular and important ally. The pair could take each other down if they engage in public warfare over the next two years. And there really isn’t anyone else who could join the GOP debate. Mike Pence is close to +2000 to be the next US president. For now, this is a two-horse race.

Ron DeSantis' 2024 President Odds = 30.8% Chance

Ron DeSantis’ 2024 odds are +225. Like Trump, DeSantis is benefitting from Biden’s historically low popularity, and DeSantis has been embraced for not following the herd. He is also considered a Trumpian figure for the next generation, which means he is a viable two-term candidate. And DeSantis could also attract the centrist voters in the rust belt that Trump lost in 2020. The problem for DeSantis, though, is that he must get past Trump during the Republican primaries to get a stab at the Oval Office. Trump became Florida's governor largely because he had Trump's endorsement in 2018.

Donald Trump's 2024 Odds = 22.2% Chance

Donald Trump’s 2024 odds are +350. These odds suggest a 22.2% chance that he will win the next US election. It’s a remarkable price for someone who lost the last election and inspires so much passion from his detractors. So why are the best bookmakers giving Trump such good odds? The first reason is that Trump still has a supportive base of loyal followers. The second is Trump seemingly has control of the GOP. And the third? Biden is polling so badly that any Republican candidate would be leading him right now. Trump has a far better chance of winning the 2024 election than he had in 2016 or 2020.

Mike Pence's 2024 President Odds = 3.4% Chance

Mike Pence's 2024 odds are +2800. The former vice president is expected to challenge Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024 after the two former running-mates had a falling out thanks in part to the controversies surrounding the Capitol Riots where Pence said his life was put into danger. Most experts don't see Pence pulling from Trump's base, but do expect the longtime politician to receive support from traditional conservatives looking to move on from Trump.

Nikki Haley's 2024 President Odds = 2.9% Chance

Nikki Haley’s 2024 odds are +3300. That’s not bad compared to most Republican's odds, but still a long way off the likes of Trump and DeSantis. Haley’s odds have actually expanded from +1700 over the past year, due largely to DeSantis’ rise in prominence. America’s former UN ambassador has been hinting at a presidential run in 2024, saying “sometimes it takes a woman” in response to questions of how the GOP can reclaim the White House.

Candace Owens' 2024 President Odds = 1.2% Chance

Candace Owens’ 2024 odds are +8000. Owens has previously speculated about the possibility of her running for president, but the conservative influencer – who will meet the legal requirement by turning 35 in 2024 – is probably too young. Still, the fact she was even talked about as a possible successor to Trump in the Republican Party shows she soon could enter politics.

Which Democrats Are Running For President In 2024?

There are a handful of top Democrats who likely will run for president in 2024. President Joe Biden isn’t guaranteed to run despite tradition dictating incumbents usually seek a second term. Vice President Kamala Harris could compete for the Dems’ nomination, while Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom and even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be thrown into the mix. Here are the latest odds for some of the most likely Democratic candidates for 2024.

Joe Biden's 2024 Re-Election Odds = 20.0% Chance

Joe Biden's 2024 re-election odds are +400. These are long odds for an incumbent President expected to run again, but he has been climbing the past few weeks. Balanced midterm elections indicate that Biden, who will be 81 years old when voters head to the polls in November 2024, has growing hope.

Gavin Newsom's 2024 President Odds = 5.9% Chance

Gavin Newsom’s 2024 odds are +1600. The Californian is wrapping up his first term as governor and is a popular figure. He beat Brian Dahle handily in the 2022 California gubernatorial election to shore up his support, and may then look toward the presidency.

Kamala Harris' 2024 President Odds = 5.3% Chance

Kamala Harris' 2024 odds are +1800. The current VP has seen her odds continue to lengthen since the start of the year, which isn't a surprise as the former Senator also has seen her favorability drop in the polls during that time period as well. Expect Kamala Harris to run should Biden not run for re-election, otherwise, expect Harris to be on the ticket with Biden again as VP.

Michelle Obama's 2024 President Odds = 2.4% Chance

Michelle Obama’s 2024 odds are +4000. The former First Lady never ruled out running for president herself, and certainly would gain plenty of Democratic supporters. But can Obama capture the center ground as her husband did before her? Perhaps. But pitching Obama against Trump could be a risky strategy for the Dems. Trump’s followers hate the Obamas. The 2024 campaign could become very messy – and the fall-out even more severe.

Hillary Clinton's 2024 President Odds = 2.0% Chance

Hillary Clinton’s 2024 odds are +5000. She was once -186 to be president, when campaigning against outsider Trump in 2016. How times change. The 75-year-old has never said she would not run for president again, but it does seem as though her chance has gone.

Ocasio-Cortez's 2024 President Odds = 1.5% Chance

AOC’s 2024 odds are +6600. The New Yorker is a high-profile Democrat and considered a big threat to the Republican party. She is popular, concise and electable. But at 32 she’s too young to target the presidency right now – the minimum age to serve is 35, so she will be ineligible. Indeed, betting sites aren’t shifting their odds on Ocasio-Cortez past +6600 and it’s unlikely they will drop over the coming months. She will probably support either Biden or Harris in the primaries.

Bernie Sanders' 2024 President Odds = 1% Chance

Bernie Sanders’ 2024 odds are +10000. Perhaps it’s time to say goodbye to Sanders’ socialist dream. The 81-year-old always has been pitched as an outsider, and was a 2016 election hopeful largely thanks to Jeremy Corbyn’s rise to the Labour Party leadership in the UK around the same time. That fueled talk of a socialist revolution in the West, which was kiboshed when Trump won in 2016. Years later, Sanders is in a worse place to win an election than he ever has been.

Will Anyone Not Already In Politics Run For President In 2024?

When Trump first flirted with the idea of being president in 2013, plenty of people laughed it off as a publicity stunt. But naysayers of the celebrity businessman didn’t realize the extent of his emerging popularity. It’s no surprise, then, that betting sites are taking odds on other celebrity presidents. Here are the some names that just won’t go away.

The Rock's 2024 President Odds (Dwayne Johnson) = 2% Chance

The Rock’s 2024 odds are +5000. That means Dwayne Johnson, better known as "The Rock", has a greater chance of being the next US president than Candace Owens and Bernie Sanders. The Rock certainly would prove a popular candidate, but is he really on the verge of running for president? Trump’s former chief of staff thinks Johnson “could give Trump a run for his money," while there are rumors he could run in the Democratic primaries. Still, at his price the bookies aren’t expecting The People’s Champion to seriously challenge in 2024.

Tucker Carlson's 2024 President Odds = 1% Chance

Tucker Carlson's 2024 odds slid from +6600 to +10000 as August ended. A well-known political commenter and conservative influencer, Carlson has been discussed as a potential candidate to make the switch from entertainment to politics but there has been nothing official out of his camp to suggest he would run in 2024. Carlson is popular among Republican voters, though, so should he consider a run at any political office, expect him to garner plenty of attention.

Kanye West's 2024 President Odds = 1% Chance

Kanye West’s 2024 odds are +10000. He ran unsuccessfully in 2020 as an independent, collecting 60,000 votes from a possible 160 million. Still, that’s more than most people would get. He swiftly tweeted “Kanye 2024” when the 2020 election results were coming in – and he may well improve his vote share. Whether he runs under the Birthday Party again remains to be seen

Joe Rogan's 2024 President Odds = 0.5% Chance

Joe Rogan’s 2024 odds are +20000. The presenter and podcaster was also tipped to run in 2020 due to the success of the Joe Rogan Show. But his position within the GOP is more as commentator and cheerleader, rather than all-in politician. Rogan recently appeared to back DeSantis for president in 2024, saying “what he's done for Florida is admirable." He also branded Biden a “dead man” – the sort of comments that don’t win many favors with voters.

Bill Gates' 2024 President Odds = 0.5% Chance

Bill Gates’ 2024 odds are +20000. The Microsoft billionaire has spent much of the past decade focusing on his philanthropic activities, and there’s always been talk that he could one day run for president. But it appears 2024 will be unlikely. Six years ago, Gates said he wasn’t interested in the presidency because he is “super committed to the work Melinda and I are doing at the Foundation and outside the Foundation." He and Melinda are now divorced, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to enter politics.

Elon Musk 2024 President Odds = 0.5% Chance

Some bookmakers in Europe price Elon Musk at +20000 to win the 2024 election. But what they don’t realize is Musk was born in South Africa, and only US-born citizens can run for president. He's ineligible.

Presidential Betting Odds Explained

Understanding presidential betting odds is hugely important before placing a wager. The odds effectively show you how many dollars you would make as profit if you were to place a $100 bet.

So, odds of +200 means you'd earn $200 profit + your $100 stake = $300. Remember, you always can use a bet calculator – or check your risk and reward in your bet slip – before completing a wager. Why political odds are different to most sports odds is because there are more than two candidates in the market. This means that the odds can fluctuate wildly.

Think of it like betting on a horse race months before the event begins. You're not sure who will be racing, let alone winning, and so the odds on Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and everyone else are much higher before the primaries.

Once it's a one-on-one race, you can be sure the 2024 presidential election odds for the final two candidates will shrink. And the shorter your odds, the smaller your potential profits.

2024 President Predictions

The race for the White House in 2024 is going to be close. On one side we have Donald Trump, the former president who holds great power over the Republican party, the right-wing media and his supporters. Trump is +400 to win the election, but needs to get past DeSantis (+225) first.

Where Trump is a polarizer, DeSantis could draw the GOP closer to the center ground and collect votes in the rust belt and among Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a decision to make. Do they stick with the unpopular Biden and go all-in on a second term? Or do they cut their losses, nominate a new figure to lead the party, and take on the GOP in a fresh campaign?

There is a lot of soul searching going on in Democratic camps. Harris, Buttigieg, Newsom, Obama, Clinton. It’s a strange make-up of old names and new figures who have yet to forge their political reputations. 

Ron DeSantis Wins in 2024

DeSantis is the bookies’ favorite, the bettors’ favorite and leads both Trump and Biden in the polls right now. He has the support of his growing base and plenty of financial muscle to mount a successful presidential campaign. Two big questions are out there. Will DeSantis run? Can he survive a primary against Trump? Can anyone? Will the Republican Party split in two?

2024 Presidential Election Betting FAQ

Contributors

Joe Short
Political Betting Expert

Joe Short is a journalist and former Editor at the Daily Express, covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things.

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