2024 Presidential Election Odds & Predictions

By Joe Short

Betting on the 2024 presidential election began almost as soon as the last election was called in the favor of President Joe Biden. As soon as the Democrat had been declared the winner over 45th President Donald Trump, sports betting sites across Europe, where political betting is legal, began pricing up who will win the 2024 election.

Odds To Win The 2024 US Presidential Election

In order to give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's "odds" to become the next President of the United States.

⭐️ Donald Trump+30025%
⭐️ Joe Biden+45018.2%
⭐️ Ron DeSantis+60014.3%
⭐️ Kamala Harris+10009.1%
⭐️ Mike Pence+14006.7%
⭐️ Tucker Carlson+33002.9%
⭐️ Hillary Clinton+40002.4%
⭐️ Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson+50002%
⭐️ Mike Pompeo+50002%
⭐️ Kanye West+100001%
⭐️ Joe Rogan+200000.5%

EDITOR'S NOTE: Political betting is prohibited in New York. The odds discussed above are from regulated bookmakers in the UK, where betting on US politics is legal.

Donald Trump is currently the most likely candidate to win in 2024, although that doesn't mean it's expected, as he currently has about a 25% chance to win. Trump's odds may come as a surprise to those who assumed he would fade away after his defeat in 2020. The Republican lost the popular vote by more than 7 million ballot slips, yet his base hasn't disappeared. Trump seems to be out for revenge and would be near-guaranteed to be the Republican nomination.

The reason why Trump is favored in the polls isn't just because of dissatisfaction among Americans with how Biden is running the country. It's also down to there being two realistic Democrat nominees for 2024: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Until the Democrats pick a definitive candidate, the odds of Biden or Harris winning the 2024 election will remain worse than Trump's, as they currently have about an 18.2% chance and 9.1% chance, respectively.

If you're reading political betting odds for the first time and aren't sure how they reflect a candidate's chances of winning, it's fairly straightforward. The odds show what profit you would make on a $100 bet. So, the lower the odds, the more likely that bet is to win, and so the smaller your profit. Betting on a candidate like Ron DeSantis at +600 ($600 profit) is a bigger risk than Trump at +300 ($300 profit), but the potential profits are therefore greater.

Right now it appears a stand-off between Trump and Biden once again – even though both candidates are well into their senior years. Additionally, recent issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and surging gas prices have many Americans questioning current policies and decisions. Vice President Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and even Hillary Clinton could also be in the running, as could various celebrities such as Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Tucker Carlson, Kanye West, Joe Rogan and others.

For now, you won't find any of these political odds at New York betting apps due to betting on politics being prohibited in the Empire State but our reporters will follow the European sites covering the election to ensure we stay up-to-date on the latest odds.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election

According to various prediction outlets and gambling websites, Donald Trump is currently the most likely candidate to win the 2024 US Presidential Election. Donald Trump has odds around +300 on most sites, which means he has about a 25% chance to win.  compared to other candidates like Joe Biden (18.2%), Ron DeSantis (14%) and Kamala Harris (9.1%).

This election cycle is perhaps a little different than most because, for the first time in over a century, a defeated President – Donald Trump – could win a nonconsecutive second term. The only other time that has happened in US history was Grover Cleveland, who was president from 1885 to 1889 and then again from 1893 to 1897. Most presidents when they lose their second election don't return. 

Will Trump surge to victory? Or will he be heavily defeated once again? To help provide some updated chances, EmpireStakes.com has taken a look at the presidential odds for a variety of candidates. 

Breaking Down the 2024 US Presidential Election candidates

 

  • Donald Trump (+300) | The Favorite

    Former President Donald Trump is riding high in the 2024 presidential election odds. And it's not hard to see why. Trump rocked the global political betting markets in 2016 when he beat Hillary Clinton to the White House despite the odds suggesting he had a 25% chance of winning. Trump is the current +300 favorite to win the 2024 election. This has surprised some analysts who can't see how the businessman can overturn the heavy defeat he suffered to Joe Biden. But Trump has beat the establishment before and could easily do so again if the stars align in his favor.

  • Joe Biden (+450) | Democratic Party Favorite

    Presidents seeking a second term always have a boost in the polls – and so it is a sign of just how bad things have gotten for Joe Biden in his first year as president that he isn't leading the 2024 election odds. Biden is +450 to win this contest as his popularity has shrunk to a record low. The veteran promised change when he came to office and many Americans don't believe he has delivered. How Biden fares between now and the Democratic primaries could make or break the 2024 election result.

  • Ron DeSantis (+600) | In the Mix

    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. That could well be the mantra Ron DeSantis uses during the Republican primaries as he tries to establish himself as an alternative to Trump. DeSantis, the Florida governor, would be a favorite for the GOP nomination if the former president was not around. He is currently playing a tight balancing act, needing the approval of Trump voters but also offering something different to more centrist Republicans. At odds of +600 DeSantis is an interesting runner to track in the presidential election odds.

  • Kamala Harris (+1000) | In the Mix

    Biden's vice president Kamala Harris was initially intended to succeed the veteran in 2024 but that looks increasingly unlikely. Harris ticks all the boxes for a Democratic nominee in the 21st century but there are claims Biden's administration has steadily sidelined her office. If Trump vs. Clinton in 2016 was a controversial election, just imagine the media storm from all sides of a Trump vs. Harris battle. At +1000 the vice president is in a great position to move into the Oval Office – but most punters will likely wait to see what Biden's intentions are before backing Harris.

  • Mike Pence (+1400) | Long Shot

    Some believe Donald Trump's former VP Mike Pence already has 2024 in sight. The Republican recently rebutted the Trump claim that the 2020 election result could have been overturned, and is evidently positioning himself as the non-Trumpian candidate among the GOP. But Pence isn't an overly inspiring choice for America's center ground. His odds of +1400 have not moved in months.

  • Tucker Carlson (+3300) | Long Shot

    Some bookmakers have Tucker Carlson as wide as +3300 to win the 2024 presidential election. He is by no means the betting favorite, but then again neither was Donald Trump before the GOP primaries. Carlson has hinted he could run for office and use his TV personality as a platform to gather votes. The only issue is it's been done before, and having him up against Trump in a primary debate could worsen both their approval ratings.

  • Hillary Clinton (+4000) | Dark Horse

    Rumors that Clinton could again run for president began to emerge in early 2022 amid growing Democratic unrest over Biden's handling of the economy. The former First Lady could well offer an alternative to Biden or Harris, but would America vote for her? Some bookmakers cut their odds on Clinton to as low as +2500 off the back of suggestions she's interested in 2024. Others have remained cautious with a price closer to +7500.

Celebrity Wildcard Candidates

Trump's win in 2016 guaranteed that we won't escape a future election without rumors of a celebrity wildcard candidate. Remember, Trump was priced way out at +10000 in the odds when he first sought the Republican nomination. And there are plenty more US celebrities with such huge personal followings that they could be tempted by office:

  • Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (+5000)

    Could The Rock become the People's Champ in politics as well as wrestling, movies, and entertainment? The bookies give Dwayne Johnson odds of between +3300 and +7700 of winning the 2024 presidential race. In the past, Johnson has said: "I would consider a presidential run in the future if that’s what the people wanted. Truly I mean that, and I’m not flippant in any way with my answer." Indeed, The Rock is never flippant. But talk is one thing, and entering the presidential race may be a step too far.

  • Kanye West (+10000)

    The rapper already has experience running, having entered as an independent in 2020 with the election slogan 'Ye For President'. Kanye West earned more than 60,000 votes across 12 states in that election, which is an arguably impressive result. Transforming that into a presidency would realistically require him to join one of the big two parties. Would the Republicans take him? Stranger things have happened. But the bookies aren't expecting a Kanye victory in 2024 and have him priced at +10000.

  • Joe Rogan (+20000)

    The podcast sensation has the ear of millions of Americans, and yet Joe Rogan isn't seen as a viable celebrity election candidate. Bookmakers have him down at +10000 in their presidential election odds. Candidates need money to win elections and Rogan has $100m in the bank. But that's not enough yet. Perhaps we'll see him come in 2030 or 2034.

2022 U.S. Midterms

The U.S. midterms provide punters and pollsters with an insight into who America is thinking of voting for two years out from the presidential election. In the 2022 midterms, Americans will vote in 435 new members of the House of Representatives, and 30 of 100 new Senators.

These votes can change the balance of power in both chambers of Congress (the House and the Senate). Right now the Democrats have a House majority but the numbers in the Senate are split 50/50. It means Biden often struggles to force legislation through Congress because all it takes is one Democrat to vote against the government to hold up procedure.

Historically the midterms are a place where voters voice their dissatisfaction with the government, and it's not uncommon to see the opposition party claim the majority of at least one chamber. However, how reliable the midterms are in helping to predict the next president depends on the weight of the result. In 2018 the Democrats overturned a Republican House to claim their biggest gain since 1974, yet lost two further seats in the Senate. In 2014 the GOP won both chambers, which made Barack Obama's final two years as president a very difficult period for passing legislation.

Republican Candidates & Outlook

The Republicans look on course to win a big majority in the House and are also favorites for the Senate. In fact, some bookmakers have priced the GOP at -500 for a House majority, and -245 in the Senate.

The Senate election is perhaps the most fascinating as its seen as a shoot-out between the two parties, currently split 50/50. According to CNN, the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip include those in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Democrat Candidates & Outlook

Losing both the House and Senate would be a crushing defeat for the Democrats and set alarm bells ringing in Biden's administration. The Dems are likely to focus heavily on defending the Senate and pray they get enough votes over the line.

The Dems will likely target Ron Johnson's Wisconsin seat and the vacancy left by Richard Burr's retirement in North Carolina. Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley could take this seat.

Betting Presidential Prop Bets

Bookmakers in many US states take odds on the presidential election and they have learned from Europe how to create some fascinating presidential prop bets. It turns out politics betting fans love to wager on different events, just like fans of sports betting in New York .

A prop bet is a type of wager that isn't focused on the end result. It is a bet on an event that orbits the main show, such as first touchdown or most strikeouts. With props in politics betting, you can wager on outcomes such as:

  • Republicans winning +/- 50 seats in the Senate
  • Donald Trump / Ron DeSantis winning ticket
  • Individual state betting
  • Which news outlet will call the election first
  • What color tie is Donald Trump wearing

Presidential Betting Odds Explained

Understanding presidential betting odds is hugely important before placing a wager. The odds effectively show you how many dollars you would make as profit if you were to place a $100 bet.

So, odds of +200 means you'd earn $200 profit + your $100 stake = $300. Remember, you can always use a bet calculator or check your risk and reward in your bet slip, before completing a wager.

Why politics odds are different to most sports odds is because there are more than two candidates in the market. This means that the odds can fluctuate wildly.

Think of it like betting on a horse race months before the event begins. You're not sure who will be racing, let alone winning, and so the odds on Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and everyone else are much higher before the primaries.

Once it's a one-on-one race, you can be sure the 2024 presidential election odds for the final two candidates will shrink. And the shorter your odds, the smaller your potential profits.

2024 Presidential Election Betting FAQ

The 2024 election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Donald Trump is currently the favorite to win the 2024 election, with about a 20% to 25% chance to win. Joe Biden is second favorite, and Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis are in a battle for third place.

Joe Biden is the top Democrat candidate, ahead of Kamala Harris, in the 2024 presidential election odds.

Donald Trump is the top Republican candidate to win in 2024.

Contributors

Joe Short @_jshort

Contributor since February 2022

Joe Short is a journalist and former Editor at the Daily Express, covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things.