Next U.S. Supreme Court Nominee Odds 2022

By Lou Monaco

UPDATE: President Joe Biden on Friday morning officially nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve on the Supreme Court. If her nomination goes through, she will be the first Black woman named to the Supreme Court. She had been the favorite and her previous odds reflected the liklihood she would be nominated.

 

Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, 83, is stepping down, which paved the way for Biden to select the next Supreme Court justice. As soon as the news broke, bookmakers in Europe laid odds on multiple potential nominees they felt were most likely to be Biden's choice. Below, we breakdown the latest odds, what those odds mean for each candidate's chances of winning and how the latest news impacts the betting market.

Odds to be the Next Supreme Court Justice

In order to give context to the next Supreme Court nominee odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds.

⭐️ Ketanji Brown Jackson-22569.2%
⭐️ Julianna Michelle Childs+25028.6%
⭐️ Leondra Kruger+60014.3%
⭐️ Wilhelmina Wright+20004.8%
⭐️ Candance Jackson-Akiwumi+25003.8%
⭐️ Leslie Abrams Gardner+33002.9%
⭐️ Sherrilyn Ifill+33002.9%
⭐️ Ojetta Thompson+33002.9%
⭐️ Tiffany Cunningham+33002.9%
⭐️ Eunice Lee+50002%
⭐️ Kamala Harris+50002%
⭐️ Anita Earls+50002%
⭐️ Hillary Clinton+100001%

EDITOR'S NOTE: Political betting is prohibited in New York. The odds discussed above are from regulated bookmakers in the UK, where betting on US politics is legal.

Supreme Court Odds Explained

Ladbrokes has updated odds with Ketanji Brown Jackson, a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, as a heavy favorite at -225. Other solid contenders, according to Ladbrokes, are Judges J. Michelle Childs (+250), Leondra Kruger (+600), and Candance Jackson-Akiwumi (+2500). Judge Childs has moved ahead of Judge Kruger into second place in the odds by Ladbrokes.

Ladbrokes has posted odds on nine other distinguished women, including two very recognizable names: Vice President Kamala Harris (+5000) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (+10000). EmpireStakes.com will update this page when news and change of odds from Ladbrokes warrant, until a nomination is put forward by President Biden.

How We Got Here

 

 

The Supreme Court  has been  back in the news since 83-year-old Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer officially announced his retirement Jan. 27 in a joint appearance with President Joe Biden at the White House. 

Biden now will start the process of selecting the next Supreme Court justice, which clears the way to follow through on a campaign promise to nominate the first Black woman to the high court.  The president affirmed that commitment on Jan. 27, saying such a historic appointment was “long overdue.” 

“I will nominate someone with extraordinary qualifications, charity, experience and integrity and that person will be the first Black woman ever nominated to the United States Supreme Court.”

Biden is getting closer to his self-imposed deadline to put forth a nominee “before the end of February,” According to CNN, the process of vetting potential nominees is heating up. Biden reportedly has spent several evenings reviewing binders related to past cases of potential picks. 

Breyer’s replacement will need to be confirmed by the Senate. The Senate is currently split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, but technically Democrats hold the majority because Vice President Kamala Harris can break any ties with her vote. 

Breyer is the second-most senior associate justice. His retirement will begin in early summer at the end of his current term. England-based Ladbrokes posted in its politics section early odds on the next Supreme Court nominee immediately after the Jan. 27 formal announcement. Political betting is prohibited in the U.S. and the odds discussed below are from the UK, where betting on U.S. politics is legal. 

Who Will Be Next Justice?

Here is a look at the front-runners and biggest names identified by Ladbrokes:

  • Ketanji Brown Jackson (-225) | The Favorite

    51, is a Harvard University and Harvard Law graduate and is listed as the heavy favorite to get Biden’s approval. She is a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and for the past eight years (2013-21) was a district judge for the U.S. District Court in D.C. She began her legal career with three clerkships, including one with Breyer.

  • J. (Julianna) Michelle Childs (+175) | In the Mix

    55, has been a South Carolina United States District Court Judge since 2010. A graduate of the University of South Florida and the University of South Carolina School of Law, she was nominated by Biden to serve as a U.S. Circuit Judge. Her nomination was sent to the Senate in early January, where it is pending before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

  • Leondra Kruger (+600) | In the Mix

    51, is a Harvard University and Harvard Law graduate and is listed as the heavy favorite to get Biden’s approval. She is a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and for the past eight years (2013-21) was a district judge for the U.S. District Court in D.C. She began her legal career with three clerkships, including one with Breyer.

  • Candance Jackson-Akiwumi (+2500) | In the Mix

    43, is a United State Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit since July 2021. She is a 2005 graduate of Princeton University and Yale Law. She spent more than a decade as a federal public defender in Illinois.

  • Sherrilyn Ifill (+3300) | In the Mix

    59. is a law professor and president of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. She is a New Yorker, born in Queens. She is a graduate of Vassar College and the New York University School of Law. She is the youngest of 10 children and is a cousin of the late television newscaster, Gwen Ifill.

  • Kamala D. Harris (+5000) | Dark Horse

    57, is the vice president of the United States, the first woman the hold that office. She was the Attorney General of the State of California from 2011-2017 and a Sen. from California from 2017-2021. She is a graduate of Howard University and the University of California’s Hastings School of Law.

  • Hillary Rodham Clinton (+10000) | Long Shot

    74, is a former Secretary of State under president Barack Obama and former Sen. from New York. She is a graduate of Wellesley College and Yale Law. She is married to former President Bill Clinton.

Current Supreme Court Justices

Here are the current members of the Supreme Court, listed by seniority and including which president nominated them:

  • Clarence Thomas

    74, was nominated by President George Bush Sr. and took his seat in October 1991.

  • Stephen G. Breyer

    83, has announced he will retire. He was nominated by President Bill Clinton and took his seat January 2006.

  • John G. Roberts Jr.

    is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. He turned 67 Jan. 27. He was nominated by President George W. Bush and took his seat in September 2005.

  • Samuel A. Alito Jr.

    71, was nominated by President George W. Bush and took his seat in January 2006.

  • Sonia Sotomayor

    67, was nominated by President Barack Obama and took her seat in August 2009.

  • Elena Kagan

    60, was nominated by President Obama and took her seat in August 2010.

  • Neil M. Gorsuch

    54, was nominated by President Donald Trump and took his seat in April 2017.

  • Brett M. Kavanaugh

    56, was nominated by President Trump and took his seat in October 2018.

  • Amy Coney Barrett

    Turned 50 on Jan. 28. She was nominated by President Trump and took her seat in October 2020.

Contributors

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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