New York City Mayor Odds: Adams holds firm in lead; Yang tied with Wiley

EmpireStakes.com

By Lou Monaco

On the eve of the New York City mayoral race primary, the top two candidates remain there, but another candidate has moved into a tie for third.

Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams continues to maintain his lead entering Tuesday’s primary. According to European bookmaker Betfair, Adams is still the moneyline favorite at -200 (1-2 odds) with a 66.7% probability to win.


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Former NYC Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia continues to maintain the second spot at +300 (3-1 odds) with a 25% chance to win.

But gaining momentum and moving into a tie for third is former counsel to current New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio, Maya Wiley. Wiley is now tied with former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, both at 7-1 odds (+700 money line) with a 12.5% chance to win.

Just six weeks ago, Yang was a prohibitive favorite at -500.

Latest NYC Mayor Odds

Candidate6/21/216/17/21Trend
Eric Adams-200-200-
Kathryn Garcia+300+300-
Andrew Yang+700+600
Maya Wiley+700+700-
Scott Stringer+1600+1600-
Shaun Donovan+2500+2500-
Ray McGuire+3300+3300-
Curtis Sliwa+5000+5000-

Odds via European bookmaker Betfair

EmpireStakes.com will be tracking the odds to become the next mayor of New York City throughout the election season, giving New Yorkers a sense of which candidates oddsmakers believe are surging or falling. Political betting is not legal in New York or anywhere in the United States, but it is in Europe. Election odds became mainstream during the 2020 presidential election, with many broadcasters referring to them. Keep in mind, odds are based on several factors, including if money is being bet on a particular candidate at that European sportsbook, which can result in swings not tied to events on the ground.

When Will Results Be Announced?

When Will Results Be Announced?

Early voting continued through Sunday. There is no voting today before Tuesday’s primary.

Early voting ballots and those from Primary Day are expected to be tallied on June 22, then the Board of Elections will wait until June 28 to begin opening absentee ballots.

Counting is expected to continue into July and the BOE has given no firm date for when it will complete the process.

NYC Mayor Odds FAQ

The New York City mayoral election kicks off with the Democratic and Republican primaries on June 22, 2021, followed by the general election on November 2, 2021.

Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. According to European bookmaker Betfair, Adams is now the moneyline favorite at -200 with a 66.7% probability to win.

No, betting on politics is not legal in New York or in any state in the US. Political betting is big in Europe, with legal sportsbooks offering odds on European as well as American politics, including for NYC mayor, Senate races and Presidential politics.

Democrat Andrew Yang, a businessman turned 2020 presidential candidate, failed in his first foray into politics but clearly enjoyed being on the national stage - even if it was for a short time. He earned a loyal following (the Yang Gang), and the job of New York City (serving 19 million residents) can launch politicians with wider ambitions into the national discussion (think Michael Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani).

Yes, NYC mayors can only serve two consecutive four-year terms before they must take a four-year break before running again.

Meet the New York City Mayoral Candidates

  • Andrew Yang is a 45-year-old entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and is originally from Schenectady. The founder and CEO of Venture for America enjoyed a loyal following known as the “Yang Gang,” during his failed Presidential run and became best known for his “Freedom Dividend” proposal, a universal basic income program that would give $1,000 a month to every American adult.
  • Eric Adams is the first person of color to be elected Borough President of Brooklyn in 2013. A Brooklyn native, he has lived in Bedford-Stuyvesant for more than 20 years and is running in the Democratic primary.
  • Scott Stringer, the New York City Comptroller, also has served as a New York State Assemblyman and the 26th Borough President of Manhattan. He is facing allegations by a former campaign intern of sexual abuse and harassment.
  • Maya Wiley is a civil rights activist, lawyer, political commentator and professor who chaired the NYC Civilian Complaint Review Board. Previously, Wiley served as counsel to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio for more than two years and has experience in police accountability and racial justice.
  • Raymond McGuire is Dayton, Ohio-born businessman who was raised by a single mother and his grandparents. For more than a decade he was the head of global corporate and investment banking at Citigroup.
  • Kathryn Garcia is the former Commissioner for the New York City Sanitation Department. Before that, she served as Interim Chair and CEO of the New York City Housing Authority and worked with New York’s emergency food program during the COVID-19 emergency response. She grew up in Brooklyn.
  • Shaun Donovan, a government official and housing specialist, was the US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 2009 to 2014 under Barack Obama and Director of the US Office Management and Budget from 2014 to 2017.
  • Curtis Sliwa is the founder and chief executive officer of the Guardian Angels as well as a radio talk show host and politician. He is running for mayor of New York City as a Republican.
How Voting Will Work This Year In NYC Mayor Race

How Voting Will Work This Year In NYC Mayor Race

The primaries will be the first NYC Mayoral Election primaries to use ranked-choice (up to five ranks) instant-runoff voting (IRV), rather than plurality voting, which was used in previous primaries held in the city.

Voters in IRV elections rank the candidates of their choosing in order of preference. Ballots are then counted for each voter's top choice. If a candidate has more than half of the vote based on first choices, that candidate wins. If not, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated.

The voters who selected the defeated candidate as a first choice then have their votes added to the totals of their next choice. This process continues until a candidate has more than half of the votes. When the field is dwindled down to two candidates remaining, it becomes an "instant runoff," which allows a comparison of the top two candidates head-to-head.

Key Date to Remember in NYC Mayoral Race

Primary Date: June 22

Contributors

Lou Monaco

Reviewer since December 2019

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

Interests: Sports betting, Casinos, Gambling legislation